HIKVISION(SZ:002415) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-05 14:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision (002415.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [5]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Hikvision's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.31% year-on-year, indicating continuous improvement in operational quality [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 657.58 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 1.18%, and a net profit of 93.19 billion yuan, up 14.94% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 45.67%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.13 percentage points [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached a historical high of 136.97 billion yuan, growing by 426% year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue was 239.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.66% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.81% [1]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 36.62 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 20.31% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.19% [1]. - The total accounts receivable and notes receivable decreased to 359.69 billion yuan by the end of Q3, down 4.664 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [1]. Business Adjustments and Growth - The domestic main business adjustments are showing results, with revenue decline in the SMBG segment narrowing to single digits, and both gross profit and net profit showing positive year-on-year growth [2]. - International markets, excluding the US, Canada, and India, are experiencing good revenue growth, with overseas non-project revenue accounting for about 30% [2]. - Innovation businesses, including Hikvision Robotics and automotive electronics, are achieving high growth rates [2]. AI and Product Development - AI models are being integrated into various products, enhancing operational efficiency and expanding application scenarios in industrial settings [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing product structures and adjusting expenses, leading to a slight increase in gross margin and a decrease in expense ratio [3]. Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - Capital expenditures are expected to decline as past investments have met development needs, and shareholder returns remain stable with cash dividends of 10.096 billion yuan and share buybacks totaling 2.028 billion yuan over the past year [3]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 137.6 billion yuan, 152.1 billion yuan, and 169.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.2, 20.1, and 18.0 [3][4].