格林大华期货早盘提示-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent correction in the market has basically ended, and the market is expected to fluctuate upwards and return above 4000 points. It is recommended to mainly allocate long positions in stock index futures based on the CSI 300 Index. For stock index options, in a range - bound market, investors should observe more and trade less on far - month deep out - of - the - money call options [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Morning Session Notice - Market Performance: On Wednesday, affected by external markets, the major domestic stock market indices opened significantly lower and then fluctuated upwards to close higher. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.87 trillion yuan, slightly decreasing. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4627 points, up 8 points or 0.19%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 3007 points, down 5 points or - 0.17%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7229 points, up 18 points or 0.26%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7464 points, up 29 points or 0.39%. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 index futures saw net inflows of 16, 15, 6, and 4 billion yuan respectively [1] - Industry and Theme ETFs: The top - performing ETFs included Photovoltaic ETF Leader, Power Grid Equipment ETF, etc., while the under - performing ones included China - South Korea Semiconductor ETF, Software 50ETF, etc. Among the sector indices, forestry, power grid equipment, etc. led the gains, and digital media, passenger cars, etc. led the losses [1] Important Information - Regulatory Policy: The CSRC will improve the quality and efficiency of overseas listing filings, expand the scope of Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect targets, and support the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters and REITs in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. It will also support Hong Kong in launching treasury bond futures [1] - Central Bank Liquidity: The central bank's net investment in open - market treasury bond trading was 20 billion yuan in October 2025, indicating the resumption of treasury bond trading operations [1] - Market Outlook: Goldman Sachs CEO gave an optimistic outlook on the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock markets, believing that many Chinese stocks are "very attractive" [1][3] - Service Industry PMI: China's RatingDog service industry PMI in October slightly decreased to 52.6 from 52.9 in September, with service demand remaining in expansion [1] - US Market: The US government shutdown led to a sharp increase in the US Treasury's general account balance, equivalent to withdrawing over 700 billion US dollars from the market. If the financing situation deteriorates further, the market may repeat the 2019 repo crisis. Once fiscal liquidity returns, it may trigger a new round of "melt - up" in risk assets. The Shiller P/E of the US stock market has reached 40, and future returns of large - cap growth stocks may be negative. Consumption in the US has slowed down, and the recruitment index has reached a new low [1][2] - Technology Companies: Microsoft plans to invest over 60 billion US dollars in data centers, and AMD CEO expects the data center AI business to reach a scale of "hundreds of billions of dollars" by 2027 [2] Market Logic - The domestic stock market was affected by external markets, opening lower and then rising. The scale of ETFs has increased by 2 trillion yuan this year. The US is planning or building data centers with a total capacity of over 45 gigawatts and an expected investment of over 2.5 trillion US dollars. The recovery of the stock market has boosted investors' confidence and residents' property income [2][3] 后市展望 - The market is expected to fluctuate upwards after the end of the correction, with photovoltaic and battery sectors leading the gains. Betting on AI is still considered correct, and the data center and energy industries have large investment demands. The stable stock market can drive consumption and enhance the economic cycle [3] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures, long positions should be mainly allocated based on the CSI 300 Index. For stock index options, in a range - bound market, far - month deep out - of - the - money call options should be observed more and traded less [3]