金信期货日刊-20251106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term rise of urea futures lacks strong fundamental support, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance remains. However, there may be short - term long opportunities, and the follow - up market depends on the export quota policy [3][5]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue to oscillate upward at a high level [9]. - Gold shows signs of stabilization after adjustment and can be bought at low levels [14]. - For iron ore, wait for a stabilization signal as it approaches the lower edge of the daily - level oscillation range, and there is a long - term expectation of loose supply [17][18]. - Glass is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term, and its future drive lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies [21][22]. - There is a seasonal supply shortage of eggs, and long opportunities should be grasped [24]. - Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures - On November 5, the urea futures 2601 contract closed at 1632 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.49% from the previous day, driven by the spot market. But in 2025, urea is in a capacity expansion cycle with nearly 7 million tons of new capacity added annually. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the total demand increment is far less than the supply increment [3][4]. Stock Index Futures - The index closed with a solid mid -阳线. Affected by high - valuation concerns, global risk assets tumbled. The central bank carried out 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations. The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward at a high level [9]. Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilization and can be bought at low levels [14]. Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not actually improved, and molten iron may decline periodically. Technically, it is approaching the lower edge of the daily - level oscillation range. In the long term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, there is an expectation of loose supply [17][18]. Glass - The daily melting amount has little change, and the inventory has decreased this week. Technically, it冲高回落 today and is expected to oscillate in the short term. The future drive lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies [21][22]. Eggs - As the temperature drops, egg - laying hens in the main breeding areas in the north will enter the winter egg - laying off - season, and those in the south will enter the early stage of the winter egg - laying off - season. The monthly total supply of commercial poultry eggs will stop increasing and start to decline, and the seasonal supply shortage will become prominent [24]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong remains stable. The price increase of downstream paper enterprises boosts the pulp price, and the futures increase in positions and prices. The supply is still loose, and the procurement side is cautious. It is expected to run weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [28].