10月美国ADP就业数据超预期

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price in a callback trend [16] - US Dollar: Short - term oscillation [20] - Chinese Stock Index Futures: Long - position balanced allocation for each index [23] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term high - level shock adjustment, with a bullish view considering profit support [27] - Treasury Bond Futures: Recently, the bond market is slightly bullish with limited upside, and long - positions should consider rhythm and odds [29] - Sugar: Chinese sugar market to oscillate, strict control on syrup and powder imports and reduced Q4 imports [34] - Steel: Adopt an oscillating approach to steel prices [41] - Live Pigs: Short - sell 03 contract after a sharp rebound, and keep an eye on long - positions in far - month contracts [44] - Red Dates: Wait and see, focus on price negotiation and acquisition progress in production areas [47] - Oils: If no major negative news, consider long - positions; wait for market sentiment to stabilize if negative [48] - Corn Starch: Band - trading [51] - Corn: 01 contract to oscillate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the long - term; be cautious about far - month contracts [53] - Thermal Coal: Price to remain strong in the short - term, watch policy changes after breaking through $800 [55] - Iron Ore: Downside space limited, consider negotiation and coking coal valuation [56] - Coking Coal/Coke: Short - term oscillation, watch for risks from declining hot metal production [57] - Copper: Oscillation, consider buying on dips [60] - Polysilicon: If the contract price corrects to par or discount to spot, consider long - positions; beware of options risks this weekend [63] - Industrial Silicon: Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [65] - Lead: Short - term strength, be cautious about chasing long; positive spread arbitrage available; be cautious in external trading [69] - Zinc: Speculative long - positions take profit on rallies; observe positive spread arbitrage opportunities; wait and see for external trading [74] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term wide - range oscillation; consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [79] - Nickel: Wait and see for speculative single - side trading; bet on valuation recovery after risk release [81] - Crude Oil: Price to oscillate [85] - Asphalt: Short - term weak oscillation [87] - Methanol: Holders of short - positions add short after the rebound ends; conservative investors take profit [89] - Pulp: Limited upside space [90] - Urea: Oscillation due to sentiment support [92] - Caustic Soda: Short - term weak oscillation [94] - Soda Ash: Downside space depends on coal price and new capacity; bearish in the medium - term [95] - Float Glass: Wait and see due to intense market game [97] - Container Freight Rates: Short - sell after the rally [99] 2. Core Views of the Report - The US ADP employment data in October exceeded expectations, indicating a short - term recovery in the labor market, but the economic downward pressure persists, and the US dollar maintains an oscillating trend [2][19] - In the context of a global stock market correction, the A - share market showed unexpected resilience, and the stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level [3][22] - The prices of steel, copper, and other commodities are affected by factors such as macro - expectations, fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends [5][6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, both better than expected [14][15] - Gold prices rebounded slightly, and the market is waiting for the end of the US government shutdown. Gold is expected to consolidate and approach the 60 - day moving average [15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump blamed the government shutdown for the Democratic victory in local elections [17] - The US Supreme Court questioned the legality of Trump's tariff policy [18] - The ADP employment data exceeded expectations, but the economic downward pressure continues, and the US dollar maintains an oscillating trend [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China will firmly promote high - level opening - up [21] - The A - share market showed resilience, and the stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level [22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, and the ISM services PMI reached a new high [25][26] - The US economic data remained resilient, and the stock market's risk appetite recovered [26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 65.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan [28] - The bond market's upward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate. Long - positions should consider rhythm and odds [29] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's 2025/26 sugar production season has started, and Brazil's sugar production estimate has been raised [30][31] - The expected high - yield of the two major producers has increased concerns about global supply surplus, which is negative for the market [34] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail sales of passenger cars in October increased year - on - year and month - on - month [35] - Steel prices continued to be weak, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in November - December [40] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The project of Wens Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary passed the environmental assessment, and Dabeinong signed a regulatory agreement [42][43] - The short - term spot market is bullish, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [43] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The acquisition of red dates in Xinjiang is progressing, and the futures price declined [45][46] - The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [47] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 12.31% month - on - month [48] - The market expects inventory accumulation in October. Pay attention to actual data and November's high - frequency supply - demand data [48] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机率 of corn starch enterprises increased, and the inventory slightly rose [49][51] - The inventory pressure is expected to be acceptable in January, and enterprises may maintain profitability [51] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn is generally stable, with some regional differences [51] - Substitute supply is expected to increase, and the 01 contract may oscillate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the long - term [52][53] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The international thermal coal price was strong on November 5, and the domestic price has risen recently [54][55] - The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and watch policy changes after breaking through $800 [55] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The demand for concrete weakened slightly, and iron ore prices oscillated weakly [56] - The downside space is limited, considering negotiation and coking coal valuation [56] 3.2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in Linfen Anze was strong [57] - The short - term market is tight, but the hot metal production has peaked, and it may oscillate [57] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's Codelco's copper production in the first nine months increased by 2.1% year - on - year [58] - The short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and copper prices are expected to oscillate [60] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The number of photovoltaic component project bids decreased last week, and the price of polysilicon was under pressure [61][62] - November is a critical point of policy and fundamental game. Consider long - positions on dips if the contract price corrects [63] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan decreased, and the inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November [64] - Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [65] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the domestic lead price trended upward [69] - The short - term supply is slowly recovering, and pay attention to delivery risks; consider short - selling at high levels in the long - term [69] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc showed a premium, and the domestic zinc production is expected to decline in November - December [73] - Zinc prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and need demand improvement for further rise [73] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Hainan Mining's lithium concentrate has been shipped, and EVE Energy signed a cooperation agreement [75][76] - The short - term price may oscillate widely, and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [79] 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Minmetals' acquisition of a nickel business entered the second - stage review [80] - The short - term price may be under pressure, and bet on valuation recovery after risk release [81] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Kazakhstan's oil field production decreased due to maintenance, and the EIA crude oil inventory increased [82][84] - Oil prices are expected to oscillate [85] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt decreased [86] - The asphalt price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [87] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The Chinese methanol port inventory increased slightly [88] - The rebound does not indicate a fundamental reversal. Holders of short - positions add short after the rebound ends [89] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price was stable, and the futures price rose [90] - The upward space of the pulp price is limited [90] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased, and the price oscillated upward due to export quota rumors [91] - The urea price may oscillate due to sentiment support [92] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased locally, and the inventory decreased [93][94] - The caustic soda price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [94] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price in Shahe oscillated, and the demand may be affected in the short - term [95] - The soda ash price may decline in the medium - term, and the short - term downside space depends on coal price and new capacity [95] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in Shahe increased slightly, and the market game is intense [96][97] - It is recommended to wait and see due to intense market game [97] 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Shipping companies adjusted European - route freight rates [98] - The container freight rate may rise in the short - term, and consider short - selling after the rally [99]