宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年11月6日）-20251106

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations have declined, while medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". Due to the persistent problem of insufficient effective demand in the macro - aspect, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the long - term to stabilize the demand side, which strongly supports bond futures. However, the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is not high, so the possibility of an overall interest rate cut in the short - term is low, and the upward momentum of bond futures is limited. In general, bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "oscillation", intraday is "oscillation on the weak side", overall view is "oscillation", and the core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations have declined, while medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", medium - term view is "oscillation", overall reference view is "oscillation". Bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. Due to insufficient effective demand in the macro - aspect, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the long - term to support bond futures. But the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is not high, so short - term overall interest rate cut possibility is low, and bond futures' upward momentum is limited. In the short - term, bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].