宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年11月6日）-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal futures market shows a pattern of "strong futures, weak spot". The price of soybean meal futures has risen significantly, driven by policy incentives, market sentiment, and the strong price - holding intention of oil mills. The short - term strength of soybean meal futures prices will continue [5]. - The palm oil futures price has continued to decline, reaching a new low in nearly four months. Affected by supply pressure and poor export data in Malaysia, as well as high domestic inventory, the short - term palm oil futures price will remain weak [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [5][6]. - Core Logic: The soybean market shows a "strong futures, weak spot" pattern. The soybean meal futures price is boosted by policy incentives (the suspension of the 24% additional tariff on US soybean imports), market sentiment, and the strong price - holding intention of oil mills due to losses in crushing profits. Although the tariff - adjusted US soybean import tax rate drops to 13%, it is still less competitive than Brazilian soybeans. The short - term strength of soybean meal futures prices will continue [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7][6]. - Core Logic: The palm oil futures price has continued to decline, reaching a new low in nearly four months. It is dragged down by the supply pressure during the high - yield season of Malaysian palm oil and poor export data. The market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of October to reach a two - year high of 2.44 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of nearly 30%. Domestically, the total inventory of the three major edible oils remains relatively high, indicating a pattern of loose supply. The short - term palm oil futures price will remain weak [7].