全球黄金需求创新高，中国市场量跌价升结构分化明显

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high, driven by strong investment demand, while China's gold demand showed a "volume decline but value rise" pattern. Looking ahead to Q4, global gold allocation demand is expected to remain resilient, and China's market may see a holiday-driven uptick [2][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Gold Demand - In Q3 2025, total global gold demand (including OTC investment) rose about 3% YoY to 1,313 tonnes, with the total value up 44% YoY to $146 billion. Investment demand was the main driver, with bar and coin demand exceeding 300 tonnes for the fourth consecutive quarter and global gold ETF holdings increasing sharply. Central bank gold purchases remained high at 220 tonnes, up 28% QoQ [2] - The breakdown of global gold demand shows that investment/gold jewelry manufacturing/central banks and other institutions/technology use/OTC and other institutions accounted for 40.9%/31.9%/16.7%/6.2%/4.2% respectively. Gold jewelry consumption volume declined 19% YoY to 371 tonnes but the consumption value rose 13% YoY to $41 billion due to high gold prices [2] Global Gold Supply - Amid high prices, total global gold supply rose only 3% YoY to 1,313 tonnes, with mine production and recycled gold accounting for 73.8% and 26.2% respectively, up 2% and 6% YoY. The contrast between demand growth and supply expansion drove prices higher. In Q3 2025, the LBMA average gold price reached $3,457/oz, up 40% YoY and 5% QoQ [4] China's Gold Market - In Q3 2025, China's total retail gold investment and consumption demand was 152 tonnes, down 7% YoY and 38% QoQ, but the value reached RMB 120.4 billion ($16.9 billion), up 29% YoY. Gold jewelry demand accounted for 55.3%, with a volume of 84 tonnes, down 18% YoY but up 21% QoQ, and the retail sales reached RMB 66.5 billion (+14% YoY / +25% QoQ) [8] - Gold bar and coin investment demand rose 19% YoY to 74 tonnes, though down 36% QoQ, and the cumulative 9M25 purchases reached 313 tonnes (+24% YoY). China's gold ETFs had a small outflow of RMB 3.8 billion ($540 million) in Q3 2025, but the AUM still rose 11% QoQ to RMB 168.8 billion. The official gold reserves increased by 24 tonnes YTD, with a 5-tonne increase in Q3 2025, reaching 2,304 tonnes, or 7.7% of foreign exchange reserves [8] Outlook - The World Gold Council believes that geopolitical uncertainty and Q4's rate cut expectations will support global gold allocation demand. In China, Q4 gold jewelry consumption may improve seasonally, but if gold prices remain high, the end - market recovery may be limited. The later Lunar New Year in 2026 may push back retailer restocking and consumer purchases [9]