Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the import cost is expected to fluctuate. Short - term soybean meal prices may rise with import costs, and the profit margin for oil extraction may recover, but in the medium term, the global soybean supply is expected to be abundant, and a strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [2][3]. - For palm oil, the high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. If the high production in Indonesia does not continue, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. Before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, it should be regarded as oscillating weakly, and a long - position strategy can be considered when there are signs of production decline [5][6][7]. - For sugar, due to strengthened import controls on syrups and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is weak. With the expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [9][10]. - For cotton, the demand is weak this year, the downstream industry chain's operating rate has declined compared to the same period in previous years, and there is a large selling - hedging pressure due to a bumper harvest in the new season. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate [12][13]. - For eggs, due to low replenishment and high culling, there is an expectation that the inventory will peak and decline. Coupled with the increasing inventory - hoarding sentiment after the temperature drops, the downward trend of egg prices has been broken. With subsequent consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - holiday stocking, the market sentiment is improving. It is expected to be mainly in a strong consolidation pattern in the short term, and the upper pressure should be monitored in the medium term [15][18]. - For pigs, the supply is sufficient, and the spot price increase is less than expected. The futures market has already priced in the future supply pressure. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, but due to the high position in the futures market, cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans rose as China's reduction of tariffs on US soybeans stimulated demand, while the Brazilian soybean premium declined slightly. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell by 10 yuan, with the price in East China at 2980 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of soybean meal was average, but the delivery was good, and the oil mill operating rate was 52.4%, up from the previous day. MYSTEEL expects the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills to be 2.0964 million tons this week, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week. As of October 30, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 47%, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular rainfall. China announced an adjustment to the import tariff on US goods, and the import tax rate for US soybeans is expected to be 13% from November 10, still higher than that of Brazil, so there is still uncertainty about future purchases of US soybeans [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - The import cost of soybeans is expected to fluctuate. The domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and the soybean meal inventory is large, putting pressure on the crushing profit. However, as it enters the inventory - reduction season, there is some support. It is expected that soybean meal prices will rise in the short term following the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, which will stimulate purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of abundant global soybean supply remains unchanged, and a strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [3]. Oils Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 5.55%. A survey on Wednesday estimated Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season to be 19.2 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons. Driven by the strong recovery of production in East Malaysia and more working days in the month, production reached a peak in October. It is expected that the seasonal high production will gradually decrease as the industry enters the low - production period in early 2026. Domestic oil prices continued to decline on Wednesday. MPOA estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by more than 10%. Palm oil prices are still constrained by the high production in Malaysia and Indonesia recently. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - The higher - than - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. The current inventory accumulation situation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the inventory - reduction time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its recent high - production record, palm oil will continue to be weak. Before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, it should be regarded as oscillating weakly, and a long - position strategy can be considered when there are signs of production decline [6][7]. Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures declined slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the报价 of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5650 - 5690 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the报价 of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5530 - 5590 yuan/ton, down 10 - 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream报价 range of processing sugar mills was 5790 - 5890 yuan/ton, with mixed changes from the previous day. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 209 yuan/ton. Brazil's Conab estimated that the sugar cane production in the central - southern region in the 2025/26 season would be 607.38 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 609.76 million tons, while the sugar production is expected to be 41.34 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 40.64 million tons. India's ISMA estimated that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season (before deducting the amount used for ethanol production) would be 34.35 million tons, and the net sugar production after deducting 3.4 million tons for ethanol production is expected to be 30.95 million tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - Recently, due to strengthened import controls on syrups and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is weak. Since August this year, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded that of last year due to a significant increase in the proportion of sugar - cane - to - sugar conversion, leading to a continuous decline in raw sugar prices. With the expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [10]. Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. The closing price of the January contract was 13615 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of CCIndex 3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1210 yuan/ton. As of the week ending October 31, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, unchanged from the previous week, 6.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.52 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. On November 4, the acquisition index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.27 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day, and the acquisition index of hand - picked cotton was 7.01 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - Fundamentally, the demand is weak this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. There is a large selling - hedging pressure due to a bumper harvest in the new season. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate [13]. Eggs Market Information - Most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few rising yesterday. The average price in the main production areas rose slightly to 2.85 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao rose 0.07 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, and farmers sold their eggs as usual. The market demand was okay, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream traders increased slightly. Egg prices may be stable or rise today [15]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to low replenishment and high culling, there is an expectation that the inventory will peak and decline. Coupled with the increasing inventory - hoarding sentiment after the temperature drops, the downward trend of egg prices has been broken. With subsequent consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - holiday stocking, the market sentiment is improving. It is expected to be mainly in a strong consolidation pattern in the short term, and the upper pressure should be monitored in the medium term [18]. Pigs Market Information - Domestic pig prices continued to decline yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.16 yuan to 11.88 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.2 yuan to 11.47 yuan/kg. The support from secondary fattening decreased, and the pigs that were previously held back for fattening are gradually being sold. The supply remains sufficient, the arrival of goods downstream has increased, and most white - striped pork prices have declined, which is negative for live - pig prices. It is expected that farmers may be reluctant to sell at low prices today, while they will be more willing to sell at high prices, and the price may be stable or decline [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - The plan completion rate of large - scale pig farms is relatively high, but due to the difficulty in selling white - striped pork, the increase in spot prices at the end of the month was less than expected. From the perspective of the number of pens of small - scale farmers and the frozen - product storage rate, the current inventory is significantly postponed, and there is a suspicion of lack of follow - up power under the continuous high - supply pressure. The futures market has already priced in the future supply pressure, and its trend is independent of the spot market. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, but due to the high position in the futures market, cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [21].
五矿期货农产品早报-20251106
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-06 01:22