Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, with finished steel prices showing a weak and volatile trend. Although the steel demand has officially entered the off - season and there is a risk of inventory accumulation for hot - rolled coils, with the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the steel consumption end may gradually recover in the future [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is still at a high level in the same period, but the demand continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. After the macro - events are realized, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. If the US liquidity problem is alleviated, the price may stabilize [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and silicon iron, the fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the trend of the black sector. The operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply pressure persists, and the demand support weakens. The price is likely to fluctuate with the commodity market in the short term, and attention should be paid to the option game near the expiration [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term inventory reduction is limited. The market has strong expectations for the industry meeting, and the price is highly volatile [16]. - For glass, the market expects an improvement in the supply structure, but the price increase is restricted by the low procurement enthusiasm of downstream factories. The sustainability of the market depends on spot transactions and inventory reduction [19]. - For soda ash, the industry operating rate remains high, the loss continues to expand, and the demand is mainly for rigid restocking. The price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3024 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.65%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2708 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 65237 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregate prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 23039 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregate prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory continuously decreasing, performing neutrally overall. Hot - rolled coils have a continuous recovery in demand, but the production is still high, and the inventory level is still relatively high [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 776.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.06% (+ 0.50). The positions decreased by 3095 lots to 54.47 million lots. The weighted position was 94.35 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.23 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.64% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly but remained at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, with FMG having a significant decline. The shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly, and the near - end arrival volume rebounded to the annual high [5]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 3.54 million tons to 236.36 million tons. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance far exceeded those under restart. The steel mill profitability reached a new low, and some blast furnaces started maintenance due to profit decline. Environmental protection restrictions in Hebei also affected pig iron production [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, while steel mill inventory decreased [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Quotes - On November 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.38% at 5776 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 116 yuan/ton [7][8]. - The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 0.91% at 5560 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5550 yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and the potential driver may come from the manganese ore end. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to the possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [10]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and it is likely to follow the black sector [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 1.52% (+ 135). The weighted contract positions decreased by 13071 lots to 398388 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 280 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 53355 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 360). The weighted contract positions decreased by 7354 lots to 230402 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 1155 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply pressure persists. Although the production in Southwest China is reduced during the dry season, the production in Northwest China continues to rise. The demand support weakens, and the price is likely to fluctuate with the commodity market in the short term [13]. - Polysilicon: Some production capacities will be overhauled, and the production in November will be reduced to 120,000 tons. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term inventory reduction is limited. The market has strong expectations for the industry meeting, and the price is highly volatile [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1097 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, down 0.72% (- 8). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 823,000 cases (- 1.24%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 27375 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 45091 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1195 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 0.50% (+ 6). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 10,000 tons (- 1.24%), with heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 48,100 tons and light - soda inventory increasing by 48,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased 16327 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased 16452 lots [20]. Strategy Views - Glass: The market expects an improvement in the supply structure, but the price increase is restricted by the low procurement enthusiasm of downstream factories. The sustainability of the market depends on spot transactions and inventory reduction [19]. - Soda ash: The industry operating rate remains high, the loss continues to expand, and the demand is mainly for rigid restocking. The price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21].
黑色建材日报-20251106
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-06 01:23