Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after the previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology remaining the market's main theme. The policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][4]. - In the bond market, the central bank restarting bond trading is short - term positive for market sentiment. In the medium term, the fourth - quarter bond market is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the market is expected to oscillate and recover [5][7]. - Regarding precious metals, overseas liquidity tightening has eased, and in the context of a loose monetary policy cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips [8][9]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of various metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - events, and cost changes. Different metals have different price trends and investment strategies [11][12][13][14]. - In the black building materials sector, the overall atmosphere in the steel market is weak, but with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand may improve. The iron ore market is currently under pressure, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term [32][33][34][35]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are recommended to be observed, while others suggest specific trading strategies [50][54][55][56]. - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, production forecasts, and consumption trends. Different products have different investment strategies [76][77][78][79]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Market Information: The expected installed capacity of US energy storage in 2026 is revised up to 76GWh, a nearly 44% year - on - year increase. The domestic intelligent robot industry is expected to grow by over 50% - 100%. SK Hynix has completed price and quantity negotiations for HBM4 supply with NVIDIA. The US October ISM non - manufacturing PMI is 52.4, higher than expected [2]. - Strategy: After the previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, and technology is the main theme. The policy supports the capital market, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Wednesday, the prices of various treasury bond futures contracts declined. The State Council adjusted the tariff measures on US imports. The winning bid results of Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds were announced. The central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4922 billion yuan [5][6]. - Strategy: The central bank's restart of bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market. In the medium term, the bond market is affected by fundamentals, fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. The supply - demand pattern may improve in the fourth quarter, and the market is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold rose 0.63%, and silver rose 1.58%. COMEX gold and silver prices are reported. Trump's speech eased the market's liquidity tightening expectations, and silver outperformed gold [8]. - Strategy: Overseas liquidity tightening has eased. In the loose monetary policy cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are given [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: The copper price rebounded due to improved ADP employment data. LME and domestic warehouse inventories changed, and downstream procurement was active [11]. - Strategy: The improved ADP data and trade situation support the sentiment. The supply of refined copper is expected to be tight, providing strong support for the copper price. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are given [12]. Aluminum - Market Information: The price of London aluminum fell, and the price of Shanghai aluminum was reported. Warehouse inventories and processing fees changed, and the market consumption sentiment was average [13]. - Strategy: The production of electrolytic aluminum has increased. The supply - side disturbances are expected to support the aluminum price, and it may be strong in the short term. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are given [14]. Zinc - Market Information: The price of Shanghai zinc fell slightly, and relevant market data such as inventory and basis were reported [15][16]. - Strategy: The domestic zinc mine inventory has declined, and the smelting profit has fallen. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [17]. Lead - Market Information: The price of Shanghai lead rose, and relevant market data such as inventory and basis were reported [18]. - Strategy: The lead ore inventory has declined, and the production of recycled lead has increased. The downstream demand is weak, but the inventory is low. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [19]. Nickel - Market Information: The nickel price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The spot premium was stable, and the cost of nickel ore and nickel - iron prices were reported [20]. - Strategy: The inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, and the nickel - iron price is weak, dragging down the nickel price. In the long term, the nickel price may be supported. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider going long on significant dips [21][22]. Tin - Market Information: The price of Shanghai tin fell. The warehouse inventory increased, and the supply was affected by the shortage of raw materials. The demand in emerging fields provided support [23]. - Strategy: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin are given [23]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The spot index of carbonate lithium fell, and the futures price rose. The trade market premium was reported [24]. - Strategy: The supply of the ore end is uncertain, and the demand supports the price. The price is expected to oscillate in a range. Pay attention to the ore price, production schedule, and market atmosphere [24]. Alumina - Market Information: The price of alumina index rose slightly. The spot price, overseas price, and warehouse inventory were reported [25]. - Strategy: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is given [26]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The price of stainless steel futures fell. The spot price and raw material price were reported [27]. - Strategy: The stainless steel market is weak, and the price is expected to remain weak in the short term. Pay attention to raw material prices and terminal demand [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fell. The price, warehouse inventory, and trading volume were reported [29]. - Strategy: The cost provides strong support, and the supply is tight due to policy adjustments. The price support is strong [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell. The spot price and warehouse inventory changed [32]. - Strategy: The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, and the finished product price oscillates weakly. The demand for steel has entered the off - season, but future demand may recover with policy implementation and macro - environment changes [33]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The price of iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot price and basis were reported [34]. - Strategy: The overseas iron ore shipment has decreased, and the demand for iron ore is weakening. The inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to be weak in the short term and may stabilize if the liquidity problem is resolved [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The price of glass futures fell, and the inventory decreased. The price of soda ash futures rose, and the inventory decreased slightly [36][38]. - Strategy: The glass market is affected by production line cold - repair plans, but the price increase is restricted by weak downstream demand. The soda ash market is weak due to over - capacity and weak demand [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose. The spot price and basis were reported [40]. - Strategy: The macro - events in October did not drive up commodity valuations. The black sector's rebound has adjusted. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not strong, and they are likely to follow the black sector's trend [41][42][43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The price of industrial silicon futures rose, and the price of polysilicon futures fell. The spot price and relevant market data were reported [44][46]. - Strategy: The supply pressure of industrial silicon is high, and the demand support is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. The supply of polysilicon will decrease, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally [45][48]. Energy and Chemical Products Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price stabilized near the starting point. The opening rate of tire factories and inventory data were reported [50][52]. - Strategy: It is recommended to set a stop - loss and trade short - term long on dips. Consider partial hedging [54]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The price of crude oil futures fell, and the inventory data of refined oil products in Fujeirah Port were reported [55]. - Strategy: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [56]. Methanol - Market Information: The price of methanol futures rose, and the basis and spread changed [57]. - Strategy: The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the high - inventory problem has not been resolved [57]. Urea - Market Information: The prices of urea in different regions changed, and the basis and spread were reported [58]. - Strategy: The supply and demand of urea have increased, but the market is still in a loose pattern. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures and spot fell. The basis, spread, and inventory data were reported [60]. - Strategy: The price of pure benzene and styrene may stop falling due to the high - level destocking and the potential for the BZN spread to repair [61]. PVC - Market Information: The price of PVC futures fell, and the cost, production, and inventory data were reported [62]. - Strategy: The supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. The export is expected to be poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [63]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The price of ethylene glycol futures rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [64]. - Strategy: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the port is accumulating inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [65]. PTA - Market Information: The price of PTA futures fell, and the production, demand, and inventory data were reported [66]. - Strategy: The supply of PTA is expected to decrease in November, and the demand may remain high. Pay attention to the opportunity for processing fee repair [67]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The price of p - xylene futures fell, and the production, demand, and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - Strategy: The high load of PX and the low load of PTA lead to difficulty in destocking PX. It is recommended to wait and see as there is a risk of negative feedback [70]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The price of PE futures fell, and the production, inventory, and demand data were reported [71]. - Strategy: The PE price is expected to remain low and oscillate due to high - level destocking and seasonal demand [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The price of PP futures fell, and the production, inventory, and demand data were reported [73]. - Strategy: The supply pressure of PP is high, and the demand is weak. The cost - side supply surplus suppresses the price [74]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: The domestic live pig price continued to fall. The supply was sufficient, and the price was expected to be stable or fall [76]. - Strategy: The group farms' plan completion rate is high, but the spot price increase is less than expected. It is recommended to short on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions [77]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg price was mostly stable with some increases. The supply was stable, and the demand was good [78]. - Strategy: The expected decline in inventory and increased consumption sentiment may drive up the price. The market is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The price of CBOT soybeans rose, and the domestic soybean meal price fell. The import tariff of US soybeans will be adjusted, and the Brazilian planting progress was reported [80]. - Strategy: The import cost of soybean meal oscillates. The domestic inventory is high, but it is in the destocking season. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [81]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The export and production of Malaysian palm oil increased. The domestic oil price continued to correct, and the spot basis was stable [82]. - Strategy: The high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the price. It is recommended to view the market as oscillating and weak until the export improves, and turn to a long - term view if production declines [83]. Sugar - Market Information: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. The production forecasts of Brazil and India were reported [84]. - Strategy: The strengthened import control of syrup and premix powder drove up the Zhengzhou sugar price, but the external market is weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [85]. Cotton - Market Information: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The spot price and new cotton purchase price were reported [86]. - Strategy: The demand is weak, and the domestic output is high. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [87].
文字早评：宏观金融类-20251106
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-06 01:12