国投期货软商品日报-20251106

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views of the Report - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends, and the investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity. Some are recommended for short - term observation, while others suggest a bearish or bullish stance [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, and the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remained stable. As of November 1st, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. Domestic spot trading was average, and downstream pure cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly. China may reduce additional tariffs on US cotton imports, and the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. Brazil's sugar production will remain high. India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere are about to start sugar - making, and their sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly, and there is news of possible syrup import control. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate, and it is expected that sugar prices will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price continued to correct. The price of high - quality apples was stable, while that of low - quality apples was weak. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. There is uncertainty in the initial cold - storage inventory, and the high prices and poor quality may affect the de - stocking speed. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. A bearish strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&NR fluctuated weakly, and BR first declined and then rose. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China will enter the low - yield period. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory of rubber products increased. Rubber inventory increased, and the cost support was weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to rise today. As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China was 2.061 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, and the pulp supply was relatively loose. The demand for pulp was average, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Timber - The futures price of timber was running weakly, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The demand for timber supported the price, and the inventory was relatively low. It is recommended to wait and see [8]