国泰君安期货：原油：空单持有，或逐步考验前低

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests holding short positions in crude oil, and the price may gradually test the previous low. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][10]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - WTI December crude futures closed down $0.96/barrel, a 1.59% decline, at $59.60/barrel. - Brent January crude futures closed down $0.92/barrel, a 1.43% decline, at $63.52/barrel. - SC2512 crude futures closed down 4.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.95% decline, at 457.70 yuan/barrel [1]. 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage 3.2.1 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All listed arbitrage paths are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -$1.93/barrel to -$8.33/barrel. Trade flows vary by grade, with some having no recent flows and others having specific October trade volumes [2][4]. 3.2.2 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Several arbitrage paths are open, with arbitrage spaces ranging from $0.01/barrel to $8.44/barrel. Some paths have specific trade volumes in October, while others have no recent trade flows [4]. 3.2.3 Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - Some arbitrage paths are open, with arbitrage spaces ranging from $0.1/barrel to $2.08/barrel, while one is closed with an arbitrage space of -$0.34/barrel. Trade flow data is referenced from various sources and adjusted [5]. 3.2.4 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All listed arbitrage paths are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -$4.93/barrel to -$9.94/barrel [6][7]. 3.2.5 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Some arbitrage paths are open, with arbitrage spaces of $1.66/barrel and $2.75/barrel, while others are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -$1.27/barrel to -$2.92/barrel. Trade flows vary by origin and destination [8]. 3.3 Key Market News - EIA reports show changes in US crude oil exports, production, inventories, and product supplies in the week ending October 31. - There are changes in US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories, as well as gasoline and heating oil inventories. - US ADP employment numbers for October are reported. - UAE's Fujairah Port's refined product inventories change in the week ending November 5. - China and the US adjust tariff and non - tariff measures, starting to implement the results of the Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations [9][11].