Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of the US ADP employment data has alleviated market concerns about economic weakness. Coupled with the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is expected that the sentiment will still be supported. The approval of copper ore exports by an Indonesian mining company has somewhat alleviated the tight supply expectation in the mining end, but the tight pattern remains unchanged. The supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported by supply - side disturbances and may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy prices are strongly supported by cost and supply - side policy adjustments. Lead and zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to positive macro - events and inventory changes. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a tight - balance state. Nickel prices are under short - term inventory pressure but may be supported in the long - term. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed due to cost and supply - side factors. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak [2][3][5]. Summary by Metals Copper - Market Information: The LME 3M copper contract rose 0.79% to $10,733/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,900 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 75 to 133,975 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 43,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 25 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream procurement was active. The inventory in Guangdong decreased, and the spot discount to the futures narrowed. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 3,420 yuan/ton, slightly widening [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: With the improvement of the US ADP employment data, the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, and the Fed's interest rate cut, the sentiment is expected to be supported. The supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 85,500 - 86,800 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper is $10,600 - 10,850/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market Information: The LME aluminum closed down 0.7% at $2,845/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,450 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract open interest decreased by 15,000 to 650,000 lots. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and the aluminum rod inventory increased slightly. The aluminum rod processing fee increased, but the trading atmosphere was average. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 to 550,000 tons [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The production of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad increased in October. With the expansion of smelting profits, the aluminum rod processing fee increased slightly, and the aluminum water ratio rebounded. The export expectation of aluminum products is good. Against the background of trade tension easing and low inventory, supply - side disturbances are expected to support aluminum prices, which may fluctuate strongly in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,350 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum is $2,820 - 2,880/ton [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of the main AD2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy fell 0.45% to 20,795 yuan/ton. The weighted contract open interest slightly increased to 27,700 lots, and the trading volume was 8,000 lots. The warehouse receipts increased by 700 to 55,500 tons. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 decreased by 100 to 20,900 yuan/ton, and the downstream receiving willingness was average [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost of cast aluminum alloy still provides strong support, and the supply is tight due to policy adjustments in the production end, so the price support is strong [8]. Lead - Market Information: The SHFE lead index rose 0.37% to 17,483 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S lead rose to $2,021.5/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,700 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly to 28,900 tons [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The visible inventory of lead ore continued to decline, the operating rate of primary smelters remained high, and the inventory of primary lead plants increased. The inventory of scrap batteries increased slightly, and the weekly production of recycled lead ingots increased. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises declined, and the de - stocking of domestic lead ingot inventory slowed down, but the absolute level was still low. With positive macro - events, the SHFE lead is expected to be strong in the short term [11]. Zinc - Market Information: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.07% to 22,668 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S zinc fell to $3,070.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,500 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 68,400 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly to 161,700 tons [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The visible inventory of domestic zinc ore continued to decline, the zinc concentrate processing fee decreased again, and the domestic zinc smelting profit declined. The monthly output of zinc ingots decreased. Downstream demand remained stable, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory slowly increased. With positive macro - events, the SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited in the surplus cycle [13]. Tin - Market Information: On November 5, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 282,090 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 276 tons to 5,976 tons. The supply of tin ore was still tight, and the production of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces recovered but remained at a low level. The import of tin concentrate in September 2025 decreased significantly. The demand in traditional fields was weak, but the long - term demand from emerging fields provided support [14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In the short term, the tin supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME tin is $35,500 - 37,500/ton [15]. Nickel - Market Information: On November 5, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 120,030 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The nickel ore price was stable and slightly strong. The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased slightly [16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In the short term, the refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, and the nickel iron price is weak, dragging down the nickel price. In the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider going long if the price drops enough or with high risk preference. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 78,327 yuan, down 0.63%. The LC2601 contract closed at 79,140 yuan, up 0.74% [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The convergence of the lithium carbonate price amplitude, the uncertainty of the supply recovery at the mining end, and the demand support at the bottom. It is expected that the capital game will return to caution, and the price will fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2601 contract is 77,600 - 80,600 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - Market Information: On November 5, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.14% to 2,791 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,790 yuan/ton, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the 12 - contract. The overseas FOB price remained at $316/ton, and the import loss was 7 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 5,100 tons to 251,900 tons [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: On November 5, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,535 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi decreased or remained stable. The raw material prices remained stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The stainless steel market is weak, with the price of the 316L variety dropping significantly. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected that the short - term market will remain weak, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and terminal demand [24].
有色金属日报-20251106
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-06 01:36