研究所晨会观点精萃：美国经济数据好于预期，提振全球风险偏好-20251106

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economic data is better than expected, boosting global risk appetite, while China's economic growth has slowed down, and the short - term macro upward drive has weakened. Attention should be paid to China's economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2][3]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. Metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products are all affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international market conditions. Summary by Category Macro - finance - Overseas: US "small non - farm" ADP employment in October exceeded expectations, and the ISM services PMI rebounded, supporting the strong US dollar and increasing global risk appetite [2]. - Domestic: China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and the RMB exchange rate weakened in the short - term. However, the policy stimulus expectation after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee helps boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive is weakened [2][3]. - Asset operations: Short - term cautious long for stock indices and treasury bonds; short - term cautious observation for black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical commodities; short - term high - level correction and cautious observation for precious metals [2]. Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as power grid equipment, photovoltaics, and batteries, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro upward drive is weakened, and short - term cautious long is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Wednesday night. Short - term precious metals are volatile, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term observation and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are recommended [3]. Black Metals - Steel: The decline of the steel spot and futures markets widened on Wednesday. Demand is expected to decline further from November to December, and supply may contract. The short - term market is expected to be weak and volatile [4][5]. - Iron Ore: The prices of iron ore spot and futures continued to weaken on Wednesday. Supply pressure is large, and prices are expected to fall further [5]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices were flat on Wednesday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - Soda Ash: The supply pressure of soda ash remains, and a bearish view is taken in the medium - to - long - term [7]. - Glass: Supported by policies and the impact of Shahe news, glass is expected to be strong in the short - term, but overall demand is still weak [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - Copper: The US dollar index is expected to remain strong. US copper inventories are at a historical high, and there is a risk of the Panama copper mine restarting. The short - term is in high - level shock [8][9]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum is volatile in the short - term. Shorting can be considered if the price breaks through the resistance at 21,800 [9]. - Tin: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and demand is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is recommended to hold a light position and wait for the "emotional bottom" [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cost support of large manufacturers [11]. - Polysilicon: There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Oil prices continue to decline. The long - term pressure remains, and the medium - to - short - term focuses on the contradiction between fundamentals and geopolitical risks [14]. - Asphalt: The cost support is weakened, and the inventory pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of crude oil [14]. - PX: It remains in a tight pattern and is affected by crude oil cost fluctuations [15]. - PTA: The supply is high, and the inventory pressure is large. The short - term is under pressure [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory pressure is large in November, and caution is needed before entering the market [16]. - Short - fiber: It follows the polyester sector to fluctuate, and the medium - term can be shorted on rallies [16]. - Methanol: It is expected to enter a shock - consolidation phase after a short - term decline [18]. - PP: The supply pressure exists, but the demand shows marginal improvement. The short - term is expected to fall inertially [19]. - LLDPE: Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the price is expected to continue to decline [19]. - Urea: The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [20]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The market has optimistic expectations, and the price continues to rise [21]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the price increase is limited. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow [21][22]. - Palm Oil: It is in a short - term adjustment, but the seasonal de - stocking trend remains unchanged [22]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: Soybean oil is weakly adjusted, and rapeseed oil is supported by factors such as inventory and trade risks [22]. - Corn: The market price is stable, and the futures may be supported at the bottom [23]. - Pigs: The pig price is generally falling, and it is difficult to rebound significantly before the winter solstice [23].