国泰君安期货所长早读-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, showing signs of stabilization after two consecutive months of decline. Fed Governor Milan believes that continued interest rate cuts are a "reasonable action" [7]. - Cotton futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. New cotton costs and high basis provide strong support, but hedging pressure limits upward momentum [9]. - The long - term bottom of the black sector has emerged. Carbon elements are stronger than iron elements, with the strength order being coking coal > steel > iron ore [12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Data - The US 10 - month ADP employment increased by 42,000, far exceeding the expected 30,000, and reversing the previous decline. Service industries added 32,000 jobs, and commodity - producing industries added 9,000 jobs. However, some industries such as information services and manufacturing had job losses [7]. 3.2 Cotton - Seed cotton procurement is nearly over. The average cost of domestic cotton in the 2025/26 season is basically determined. New cotton costs and high basis support cotton futures, but due to regional cost differences, a large domestic cotton harvest, and average downstream demand, hedging pressure restricts upward movement [9]. 3.3 Black Sector - Long - term bottom: Coking coal has a production - cut expectation, which can reverse the oversupply situation; soft - landing interest rate cuts will release liquidity, increasing overseas demand and Chinese industrial product exports; to break out of the deflation spiral, demand needs to be boosted again. - Variety strength relationship: Iron elements had a large correction because macro - level benefits were mostly realized, iron ore shipments increased, and inventory accumulation was fast. Carbon elements (coking coal and coke) were strong. Coking coal inventory was not high, and upstream mines were still reducing inventory, while downstream rigid demand and winter - storage replenishment expectations supported prices. The strength order is coking coal > steel > iron ore [12]. 3.4 Other Commodities - Precious Metals: Gold is affected by government shutdown on liquidity; silver is expected to rebound in a volatile manner [15][19]. - Base Metals: Copper lacks a clear driving force and will oscillate; zinc will move in a range; lead is supported by a decrease in overseas inventory; tin is affected by macro factors; aluminum is expected to run strongly; alumina rebounds from the bottom; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [15][23][37]. - Energy and Chemicals: Carbonate lithium will oscillate weakly; industrial silicon's disk is strong due to warehouse - receipt reduction; polysilicon's disk may correct due to unmet news - based expectations [15][43][48]. - Ferrous Metals: Iron ore will fluctuate at a high level; rebar and hot - rolled coil will oscillate weakly due to sector sentiment; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will have wide - range oscillations due to a multi - empty game; coke and coking coal will fluctuate at a high level [15][51][54][58][61]. - Agricultural Products: Cotton is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; eggs are in an adjustment phase; live pigs' spot - market contradictions are gradually being released; peanuts need attention to the spot market [17].