棉花：预计震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the cotton industry as expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [1] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2601 closed at 13,615 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.59% and a night - session close at 13,630 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase. CY2601 closed at 19,820 yuan/ton with a 0.13% daily increase and a night - session close at 19,890 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase. ICE cotton 12 closed at 65.07 cents/pound with a - 0.12% decrease [1] - Transaction and Position Data: CF2601 had a trading volume of 381,948 lots, an increase of 133,555 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 943,370 lots, an increase of 23,742 lots. CY2601 had a trading volume of 12,268 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and an open interest of 25,021 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: Zhengzhou cotton had 2,752 warehouse receipts, an increase of 182, and 1,377 valid forecasts, a decrease of 40. Cotton yarn had 6 warehouse receipts, unchanged, and 12 valid forecasts, a decrease of 6 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,589 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or - 0.41%. The price of southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,513 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan or - 0.05%. The 3128B index was 14,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan or - 0.11% [1] - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Local low - basis cotton spot transactions remained good, and the supply of low - basis spot goods gradually increased. Different grades of northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton had different basis quotes [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price of pure cotton yarn remained stable overall, with significant regional differentiation. Xinjiang textile enterprises reported smooth sales and good orders for medium - and high - count yarns, while the mainland market had a weak trading atmosphere, and some enterprises slightly reduced prices to clear inventory [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures fell slightly due to the decline in crude oil prices. However, due to the improvement in international economic and trade relations, the market expected an improvement in global and US cotton demand, and ICE cotton was more resilient than in October [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]