国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251106

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Palm oil lacks driving forces and attention should be paid to short - term support [2]. - For soybean oil, US soybeans have stabilized and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly returning [2]. - Both soybean meal and soybean are affected by tariff sentiment and will fluctuate [2]. - Corn will move in a volatile manner [2]. - India's sugar production is expected to recover significantly [2]. - Cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. - Eggs are in an adjustment phase [2]. - For live pigs, the spot contradictions are gradually being released, and a large reverse spread strategy is recommended [2]. - For peanuts, attention should be paid to the spot market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,590 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - session closing price was 8,630 yuan/ton with a 0.47% change. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,138 yuan/ton with a 0.37% change, and night - session closing price was 8,156 yuan/ton with a 0.22% change [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The tariff on US imports will be adjusted, and Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 12.31% to 2 million tons. India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low. Affin Hwang IB expects palm oil prices to recover in Q1 2026 [5][7][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean's 2601 contract daily - session closing price was 4,123 yuan/ton (+47, + 1.15%), and night - session closing price was 4,139 yuan/ton (+62, + 1.52%). DCE soybean meal's 2601 contract daily - session closing price was 3,073 yuan/ton (+45, + 1.49%), and night - session closing price was 3,076 yuan/ton (+37, + 1.22%) [12]. - Macro and Industry News: China will adjust the tariff on US products, and the market's short - term sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals remain cautious [12][14]. Corn - Fundamental Data: The closing price of C2601 was 2,134 yuan/ton (-0.23%) during the day and 2,139 yuan/ton (+0.23%) at night. The closing price of C2603 was 2,162 yuan/ton (-0.23%) during the day and 2,168 yuan/ton (+0.28%) at night [16]. - Macro and Industry News: Corn prices in different regions have different performance, and the prices of imported sorghum and barley are also provided [17]. Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 14.12 cents/pound (-0.1), the mainstream spot price was 5,680 yuan/ton (-10), and the futures main - contract price was 5,441 yuan/ton (-40) [19]. - Macro and Industry News: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, and its exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [19]. Cotton - Fundamental Data: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,615 yuan/ton (0.59%) during the day and 13,630 yuan/ton (0.11%) at night. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,820 yuan/ton (0.13%) during the day and 19,890 yuan/ton (0.35%) at night [24]. - Macro and Industry News: The spot trading of low - basis cotton is good, and the price of pure - cotton yarn is stable. The performance of the Xinjiang and inland markets is different [25]. Eggs - Fundamental Data: The closing price of egg 2512 was 3,217 yuan/500 kg (1.93%), and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,509 yuan/500 kg (1.23%) [30]. - Macro and Industry News: No specific macro and industry news is provided. Live Pigs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 11,880 yuan/ton (-100), the Sichuan spot price was 11,500 yuan/ton (-150), and the Guangdong spot price was 12,560 yuan/ton (-200). The price of live pigs 2601 was 11,945 yuan/ton (260) [32]. - Macro and Industry News: The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [33]. Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The price of PK601 was 7,802 yuan/ton (-0.10%), and the price of PK603 was 7,848 yuan/ton (-0.18%) [36]. - Macro and Industry News: The peanut market in different regions has different performance, with some regions having stable prices and some having weak prices [37].