棕榈油：油脂驱动匮乏，关注短期支撑，豆油：美豆企稳，豆棕缓慢回归

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil market lacks driving forces, and short - term support levels should be monitored. The soybean oil market is stabilizing, and the price gap between soybean oil and palm oil is gradually narrowing [1]. - After the recent price decline due to increased production, the price of crude palm oil may recover in the first quarter of 2026, supported by the seasonal low - production period. Affin Hwang IB estimates the average price of crude palm oil to be between 4,200 - 4,350 ringgit per ton in 2025 and 4,350 - 4,450 ringgit per ton in 2026 [5]. - The market sentiment has improved in the short term, but the fundamentals remain cautious. The continued rebound of soybean prices depends on China's actual procurement volume and the export rhythm of US soybeans [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 8,590 yuan/ton (down 0.30% during the day session) and 8,630 yuan/ton (up 0.47% during the night session); the soybean oil main contract was 8,138 yuan/ton (up 0.37% during the day session) and 8,156 yuan/ton (up 0.22% during the night session); the rapeseed oil main contract was 9,407 yuan/ton (down 0.38% during the day session) and 9,438 yuan/ton (up 0.33% during the night session). The Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,109 ringgit/ton (down 0.84% during the day session) and 4,122 ringgit/ton (up 0.34% during the night session), and the CBOT soybean oil main contract was 49.71 cents/pound (up 0.36%) [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract was 546,167 lots (a decrease of 10,434 lots), and the open interest was 423,090 lots (an increase of 17,113 lots); the soybean oil main contract had a trading volume of 248,485 lots (a decrease of 33,875 lots) and an open interest of 482,137 lots (an increase of 1,482 lots); the rapeseed oil main contract had a trading volume of 142,702 lots (a decrease of 20,827 lots) and an open interest of 214,565 lots (an increase of 1,525 lots) [1]. - Spot Prices: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton); the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,480 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton); the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,850 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton); the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,035 US dollars/ton (an increase of 5 US dollars/ton) [1]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 40 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 342 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 443 yuan/ton [1]. - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 817 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was - 452 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was - 106 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil was 188 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 345 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council announced that starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, it will adjust the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States. The 24% additional tariff rate on US goods will be suspended for another year, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [2][6]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 31, 2025, is estimated to increase by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight - year high. The estimated production for the 2025/26 season is 19.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of Malaysian crude palm oil was 14.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of only 0.3% [4]. - India's palm oil imports in October 2025 dropped to a five - year low due to increased domestic inventory, weak demand in the food industry, and a narrowing price gap with other oilseeds. The total import volume, including crude and refined palm oil, was 750,000 tons, lower than 980,000 tons in September [4]. - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher, with the benchmark contract up 1.2%. Analysts expect the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report to show that the net export sales volume of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season in the week ending October 30, 2025, will be between 400,000 and 2 million tons. Traders estimated that speculative funds net - bought 8,500 lots of soybeans on Wednesday [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [7].