沥青：弱势运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Weak Operation" for the asphalt industry [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is in a weak operation state, with various indicators showing a downward trend or weak performance [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,164 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.78%, and the overnight closing price was 3,139 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.79%. The trading volume was 20,806 lots with an increase of 4,361 lots, and the open interest was 26,685 lots with a decrease of 3,040 lots. For BU2601, the yesterday's closing price was 3,166 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.85%, and the overnight closing price was 3,141 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.79%. The trading volume was 178,534 lots with an increase of 4,477 lots, and the open interest was 203,527 lots with a decrease of 3,433 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 7,690 lots with no change [1] - Spread Data: The basis (Shandong - 12) was -24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The 12 - 01 inter - period spread was -2 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Shandong - South China spread was -290, a decrease of 20 compared to the previous day. The East China - South China spread was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - Spot Market Data: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The refinery operating rate was 32.90%, a decrease of 1.58% compared to the previous period. The refinery inventory rate was 26.67%, a decrease of 0.79% compared to the previous period [1] Trend Intensity - The asphalt trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view within the range of [-2, 2] [10] Market Information - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 29.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%, mainly due to production cuts at some refineries and intermittent shutdowns at others [13] - From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 44.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1%. Shandong was the only region with an increase in shipments, while the East China region had the most significant decrease [13] - From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt sample enterprises was 11.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The asphalt supply decreased in the north and increased in the south, and the demand for modified asphalt in the north declined [13]