Group 1: Report Summary - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and analyses for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and the container shipping index (European line). Each commodity has different market trends and influencing factors, such as supply and demand, cost, and macroeconomic factors [2] Group 4: Commodity Summaries PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Overseas gasoline blending demand supports the valuation of aromatics, and PX is relatively strong in the short term. The domestic device operating rate has reached a new high. Concerns about sanctions on Russian oil companies may lead to a reduction in the operating rate of some refineries, but it does not affect the PX operating rate for now. The cost side is supported by gasoline blending demand, and future logistics changes of aromatics should be monitored [16] - PTA: The cost support is weak, but there is an oversupply. It is a unilateral oscillating market, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies. The polyester load has rebounded unexpectedly, and the rigid demand for PTA is acceptable. The short-term operating rate of PTA has decreased, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November has eased. However, the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear, and the space for positive spreads is limited. Interval operations are recommended. The processing fee above 300 should be shorted on rallies [16] - MEG: The unilateral price has reached a new low, the operating rate of existing devices has increased, and the supply pressure remains high. The monthly spread should be shorted on rallies. Domestic and coal-based devices have restarted or are undergoing maintenance. The import volume this week is at a high level, and inventory accumulation at ports will accelerate. Although the polyester load remains high, it cannot change the current oversupply situation. The current price needs to test the cost line of coal-based devices, and the operating conditions of marginal high-cost devices should be observed [17] Rubber - Rubber is oscillating. The upstream raw material support is insufficient, and the market sentiment is bearish. The downstream is cautious about restocking at low prices, and the price center of natural rubber continues to move down. Some enterprises have slightly reduced their production at the beginning of the month, and the overall sales pressure is increasing [18][21] Synthetic Rubber - The decline of synthetic rubber has slowed down. The inventory of butadiene rubber has decreased, and the spot trading has improved, which supports the price. In the medium term, the weak operation of butadiene has led to a downward shift in the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. The supply pressure of butadiene is high in the fourth quarter, and the inventory pressure is gradually increasing. The futures price reflects the expectation of profit contraction of butadiene rubber. The macro driving force has weakened, and the industrial chain fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to whether the supply and demand pattern of butadiene rubber will improve in November [22][25] Asphalt - Asphalt is operating weakly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy-traffic asphalt enterprises has decreased this week, the shipment volume has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises has also decreased. The supply in the north has decreased, and the demand in the north has entered the off-season, while the supply in the south has increased slightly, but the overall decline in the north outweighs the increase in the south [27][40] LLDPE - For LLDPE, the unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The market price has continued to decline, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The downstream demand for agricultural films and packaging films provides rigid support, and the market inventory has decreased. In the short term, there is no strong driving force for continuous decline, and the market is oscillating. In the medium term, the high inventory and weakening demand may lead to supply and demand pressure [41][42] PP - PP is trending weakly. The domestic PP market has continued to be weak, and the futures price has declined significantly, which has increased the bearish sentiment in the spot market. The cost support has weakened, and the downstream procurement is cautious. Although the recent rebound in oil prices and the reduction in supply have led to a short-term rebound in the market, the long-term downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally resolve, and the market may be in a weakly oscillating pattern in the medium term [45][46] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is supported by cost, but there is still pressure in the trend. The high production and high inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market is shorting the chlor-alkali profit. The impact of alumina production and reduction on caustic soda demand can be basically offset. The winter is the off-season for chlor-alkali enterprise maintenance, and the supply-demand gap caused by stockpiling may be limited. The non-aluminum downstream support is limited, and the export is under pressure, which increases the domestic supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the supply changes under the background of low profit and liquid chlorine [49][50] Pulp - Pulp is oscillating. The futures market has strengthened, but the现货 market has stagnated. The supply-demand pattern has not changed significantly, and the port inventory remains at a high level of 2 million tons, with continuous supply pressure. The downstream demand for base paper is weak, and the terminal orders are limited. The futures price may have upward momentum if the position continues to increase, but the weak spot follow-up and high inventory pressure will limit the upward space [53][57] Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The prices in most domestic float glass regions have remained stable, and the prices of large and small plates in Shahe have fluctuated. The news of production line shutdown in Shahe has boosted market sentiment, but the market trading atmosphere has weakened as the futures price has declined. Some float glass factories have good sales at the beginning of the month and are strongly willing to maintain prices [59][60] Methanol - Methanol is operating weakly. The spot price index has declined, and the prices in some cities have decreased. The market atmosphere is active, and the futures price has rebounded after a decline. The downstream demand is rational, and the MTO industry operating rate has decreased. The supply has increased significantly in early November, and the import logistics contradiction may be alleviated. The MTO industry is under pressure, and the profit has been compressed. The macro driving force has weakened, and the industrial chain fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to whether the return of port goods to the inland will support the price [62][66] Urea - Urea is oscillating in the short term. The total inventory of domestic urea enterprises has increased slightly this week. The agricultural rigid demand is gradually decreasing, but the industrial and reserve demand has increased appropriately. The spot trading has improved, and the futures price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the overall spot trading volume today [67][70] Styrene - Styrene is weakly oscillating. The contradiction in styrene is not significant, and the absolute valuation of pure benzene is low. The chemical fundamentals are still weak, but the gasoline blending spread has opened, and attention should be paid to the incremental demand. Pure benzene is facing triple pressures: weak downstream demand, poor purchasing willingness, and increasing supply. The downstream profit has been squeezed, and the terminal demand is weak. The inventory of downstream solids has accumulated rapidly, and there is no sign of improvement in demand in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the marginal increase in actual orders due to the easing of the Sino-US trade war. In the short term, the absolute price of pure benzene is oscillating, and it is not suitable to short further [71][72] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has changed little. The domestic soda ash market is stable and oscillating, and the price of light soda ash of some enterprises has increased. The production devices of soda ash enterprises have not changed significantly, and the supply is stable. The downstream demand is stable, and most buyers purchase at low prices. The market is expected to be stable and oscillating in the short term [74] LPG and Propylene - LPG: The demand improvement is limited, and the valuation of the futures market is high. The prices of CP paper goods for propane and butane in December and January have declined [83] - Propylene: The upstream devices are in a loss state, and attention should be paid to production reduction operations. The PDH operating rate has increased this week, while the MTBE and alkylation operating rates have changed slightly [79] PVC - PVC still has pressure in the trend. The成交 price of the domestic PVC spot market has continued to decline slightly. The supply-demand expectation contradiction has increased, and the market has returned to the fundamental downward trend. There is no macro expectation support in the short term. The profit pattern of the PVC industry chain is difficult to sustain, and the supply will maintain a high operating rate in winter. The domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak, the inventory transfer to the downstream is not smooth, and the social inventory is higher than the same period last year. The PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the long-side delivery pressure is large in the future. The high production and high inventory structure of the PVC market are difficult to change, and the export growth may slow down due to policy disturbances. Attention can be paid to the production reduction efforts of the supply side during the peak maintenance season next year [86] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It is mainly oscillating and still weaker than low-sulfur fuel oil. The prices of high-sulfur fuel oil futures have declined, and the trading volume and open interest have changed slightly. The spot prices of high-sulfur fuel oil in various regions have also declined [89] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is strong in the short term, and the price spread between high and low-sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to rise. The prices of low-sulfur fuel oil futures have changed slightly, and the trading volume and open interest have decreased. The spot prices of low-sulfur fuel oil in various regions have also declined slightly [89] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is oscillating. The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed. The freight rates of the European and US West routes have fluctuated. The spot freight rates of the European line have decreased, while the freight rates of the US West route have increased [91]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251106
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-06 01:47