铅锌日评：沪铅高位回落，沪锌或有回调-20251106

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The price of Shanghai lead may oscillate and decline due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved supply tightness, and significant upward pressure on lead prices [1]. - Zinc prices lack continuous upward momentum due to weak domestic terminals and hawkish remarks on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, in the medium - term, the zinc price may be supported as the mine end tightens in the fourth quarter, and there may be opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1]. Summary by Directory Information - On November 3, 2025, the Jinpo Lead - Zinc Mine of Puding Derong Mining Co., Ltd., a wholly - owned subsidiary of Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd., obtained a new "Safety Production License" with a valid period from November 3, 2025, to November 2, 2028, and a permitted lead - zinc underground mining capacity of 200,000 tons/year. The mine has started preparations for resumption of production [1]. - On November 4, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $24.4 per ton with an open interest of 151,517 lots, an increase of 1,388 lots [1]. - Xingye Yinxi released its Q3 2025 report. From January to September 2025, the company produced 5,651.48 tons of tin ore (a 13.12% year - on - year decrease), 212.16 tons of silver ore (an 18.98% increase), 45,783.81 tons of zinc ore (a 1.92% increase), 13,991.67 tons of lead ore (a 2.61% increase), 1,832.67 tons of copper ore (an 18.83% decrease), 1,109.57 tons of antimony ore (a 9.83% decrease), 215,800 tons of iron ore (a 16.42% decrease), 124.57 tons of bismuth ore (an 18.33% increase), and 0.074 tons of gold ore (a 221.74% increase) [1]. - On November 4, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of $138.78 per ton with an open interest of 227,115 lots, an increase of 3,686 lots [1]. Investment Strategy - For lead, continue to hold previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, wait for opportunities to go long after a correction [1]. Transaction Volume and Open Interest - For lead, the trading volume of the active futures contract was 46,416 lots (a 42.05% increase), the open interest was 65,699 lots (a 0.59% decrease), and the volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.71 (a 42.90% increase) [1]. - For zinc, the trading volume of the active futures contract was 100,837 lots (a 33.02% decrease), the open interest was 112,477 lots (a 3.80% decrease), and the volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.90 (a 30.37% decrease) [1]. Inventory - The LME lead inventory was 208,600 tons with no change, and the Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 21,704 tons (a 0.27% increase) [1]. - The LME zinc inventory was 34,000 tons with no change, and the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 68,423 tons (a 0.33% increase) [1]. Lead and Zinc Price Analysis - For lead, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,325 yuan/ton (a 0.43% increase), the closing price of the futures main contract was 17,475 yuan/ton (a 0.34% increase), the Shanghai lead basis was - 150 yuan/ton (an increase of 15 yuan/ton), and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.65 (a 0.34% increase) [1]. - For zinc, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,430 yuan/ton (a 0.36% decrease), the closing price of the futures main contract was 22,650 yuan/ton (a 0.09% decrease), the Shanghai zinc basis was - 220 yuan/ton (a decrease of 60 yuan/ton), and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.36 (a 0.09% decrease) [1].