银河期货每日早盘观察-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed resilience despite external shocks. The stock index futures market is expected to remain in a high - level shock in the short term, while the bond market has limited upward space. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of different varieties vary. For example, the price of soybean meal is affected by trade relations and supply - demand, and the international sugar price is in a downward trend. - The black metal market is in a state of shock. Steel prices are in a range - bound state, and the double - coke market is expected to be strong after a callback. - The non - ferrous metal market has different trends for each variety. Precious metals are in a range - bound arrangement, and the prices of some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost. - The energy and chemical market also shows different trends. For example, the price of crude oil has support, while the price of asphalt is under pressure. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: The market was affected by the overnight decline of US stocks but quickly rebounded. The short - term market will maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to buy at low levels near 3930 points of the Shanghai Composite Index and reduce positions at high levels above 4000 points. Also, consider IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage and bull spread options at low levels [18][19]. - Treasury Futures: The treasury futures closed mostly lower on Wednesday. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking. In the future, short - term long positions can be tried on the TL contract, and pay attention to short - term spread and term spread arbitrage opportunities [22][23]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Trade relations are beneficial to US soybeans, but the international soybean supply is abundant. The price of domestic soybean meal is supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to short the far - month contracts [25][26]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is in a downward trend due to increased production in major producing areas. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a range - bound state. It is recommended to operate in the range and short the international sugar while going long on Zhengzhou sugar [29][30][31]. - Oilseeds and Oils: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to gradually decrease after accumulating in October, and the domestic palm oil inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider going long at low levels [33][34][35]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The US corn is expected to be in a narrow - range shock. The domestic corn price has a short - term decline space. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips, wait and see for the 01 - month contract, and wait for a callback for the 05 and 07 - month contracts [37][38]. - Pigs: The pressure of pig slaughter continues, and the price remains low. It is recommended to short a small amount [39][40][41]. - Peanuts: The peanut spot price is rebounding, and the 01 - month contract is in a short - term bottom shock. It is recommended to go long lightly on the 01 and 05 - month contracts [42][43][44]. - Eggs: The number of culled chickens has increased, and the egg price has stabilized. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [45][46][47]. - Apples: The market is expected to fluctuate greatly with the release of warehousing data. It is recommended to wait and see [50][51][52]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The cotton harvest is at its peak. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in a shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56][57]. Black Metals - Steel: The iron - making output is shrinking, and the steel price is in a range - bound state. It is recommended to go long on dips and continue to hold the long position of the coil - screw spread [60][61]. - Double - Coke: The market is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [62][63][64]. - Iron Ore: It is recommended to take a bearish view. The price is expected to be in a high - level bearish operation [65][66]. - Ferroalloys: The valuation is at a low level, and previous short positions can be reduced. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: Multiple factors are intertwined, and the precious metals market is in a range - bound arrangement. It is recommended to operate in a band [71][72][74]. - Copper: The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see and continue to hold the inter - market cash - and - carry arbitrage [75][76][77]. - Alumina: The supply - side production reduction has not been implemented, and the price is in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to wait and see [78][80][81]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The demand is resilient, and the price is expected to rise on dips. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage [82][84][85]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The seasonal peak season is coming, and the price is expected to rise on dips. It is recommended to go long on dips [86][87][89]. - Zinc: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and previous long positions can take partial profit [90][91][92]. - Lead: It is recommended to hold short positions. The price may have a downward space. Be vigilant about the impact of funds on the price [94][95]. - Nickel: The supply - demand is loose, the cost support is weakening, and the price is expected to decline in a shock [96].