FICC日报：“小非农”人数高于预期，关注美政府停摆时长-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - Domestic market has positive news, but economic foundation needs strengthening. The "15th Five-Year Plan" boosts market sentiment and economic expectations, and the average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be around 5%. The Sino-US economic and trade teams have reached consensus on three aspects, and the A-share market showed an upward trend on November 5th [1]. - The Fed's stop of QT is still slow, and liquidity risks need attention in November. There are differences among Fed officials regarding inflation and employment risks. The US government shutdown continues, and the 10 - month ISM manufacturing index has declined [1]. - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. Pay attention to potential breakthrough directions in the second half of inflation, such as non - ferrous metals and energy [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic market: The "15th Five - Year Plan" sets goals, and the average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be around 5%. Sino - US economic and trade teams reached three - point consensus. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, with a month - on - month value of - 0.8. On November 5th, the A - share market had an upward trend, and the ChiNext Index rose by over 1% [1]. - US market: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. There are differences among Fed officials on inflation and employment risks. The US government shutdown entered its 36th day on November 5th. The 10 - month ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, and the ADP employment number increased by 42,000 [1]. - Commodities: It is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is affected by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector and changes in agricultural products and precious metals [1] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [2] To - do News - The State Council Tariff Commission will continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff on US imports for one year while retaining the 10% tariff from November 10, 2025 [3]. - The US federal government shutdown entered its 36th day on November 4th, breaking the historical record [3]. - The US 10 - month ADP employment number increased by 42,000, higher than the expected 30,000 [3]. - The US Supreme Court will decide on Trump's tariff policy, and Treasury Secretary Bessent will go to the Supreme Court to emphasize the importance of tariffs [3]