尿素早评：情绪好转，反转存疑-20251106

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the perspective of supply and demand. The current valuation of urea is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. After the spot price in Shanxi region fell to the near - five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, it has temporarily stabilized. If the price continues to fall, it may lead to a further decline in the upstream's willingness to start production and accelerate the enterprise's active clearance. In the short term, the upward driving force of urea is insufficient, with large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream mainly replenishes inventory cautiously at low prices. The possible future drivers include the renovation expectation of old chemical devices on the supply side and whether new export quotas will be issued [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1633 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1715 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.29%; UR09 closed at 1739 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.06%. Among domestic spot prices, Shandong was 1580 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.64%; Henan, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged; Jiangsu was 1570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.64% [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 5 yuan to - 135 yuan/ton. The spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 2 yuan to - 82 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The price of anthracite coal in Shanxi remained unchanged at 930 yuan/ton. Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5073 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1625 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1644 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1620 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1633 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1632 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 272,255 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]