综合晨报-20251106

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The medium - term downward risk of oil prices remains due to supply - demand surplus pressure and the uncertain impact of geopolitical factors [2]. - Precious metals are in a high - level shock platform and should be temporarily observed due to the uncertainty of the US economy and Fed policies [3]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy changes, and seasonal factors, showing different trends of shock, strength, or weakness [2 - 50]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: After the unexpected increase in API and EIA crude oil inventories, the medium - term downward risk of oil prices exists. Geopolitical factors have an uncertain impact on supply [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward momentum due to sufficient supply, while high - sulfur fuel oil's medium - term supply tends to be loose. The crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is expected to widen [22]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): With improved chemical profits and increased combustion demand, but weak international oil prices, the LPG main contract is expected to oscillate [24]. - Bitumen: With the decline of construction in the north, the fundamentals show multiple negative signals, and the market is under pressure [23]. Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals are in a high - level shock platform, and it's advisable to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the US economy and Fed policies [3]. - Base Metals: - Copper: After hitting a record high, it needs new negative supply themes or strong demand signals. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - Aluminum: The short - term trend is oscillating and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited [5]. - Zinc: Supported by winter storage and refinery复产 expectations, it's expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and short - term long positions on dips are recommended [8]. - Nickel: Weakly operating with a downward - shifting center of gravity due to weak downstream demand [10]. - Tin: After a short - term sharp decline, it's close to the October low, and short - selling is suspended to wait for changes in social inventory [11]. - Lead: Oscillating between 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton due to the conflict between supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [9]. - Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron: Both are expected to have narrow - range oscillations, with relatively stable supply and demand [19][20]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Both are oscillating strongly. Although downstream demand provides some support, steel mills' low profit levels lead to price - pressing sentiment. Attention should be paid to safety production assessment information [17][18]. - Alumina: With a surplus supply pattern, it's weakly operating with limited rebound space [7]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the price of aluminum and has no independent market for the time being [6]. Chemicals - Urea: The market is oscillating strongly, with increasing production and some support from agricultural demand, but the supply - demand surplus situation persists, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [25]. - Methanol: With high port inventory, high import supply, and weak downstream demand, the market is under pressure, and it's necessary to wait for supply reduction and demand improvement [26]. - Pure Benzene: It's oscillating at a low level. There are medium - term negatives of high imports and falling demand, and it's advisable to focus on the inventory accumulation rhythm [27]. - Styrene: New production capacity is increasing, and the price is expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene: The supply is relatively loose, downstream demand is weak, and the market performance is average [29]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: PVC is operating at a low level due to high supply and low demand, while caustic soda is expected to continue to decline due to high inventory and weak demand [30]. - PX and PTA: Supply is increasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The anti - arbitrage strategy is continued, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [31]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The anti - arbitrage strategy is adopted, and attention should be paid to the possibility of plant shutdowns [32]. - Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip: Short - fiber is expected to accumulate inventory in the future, and bottle - chip is under pressure due to weak demand and over - capacity [33]. Building Materials - Glass: After the production line shutdown in Shahe, the inventory is expected to decline. With rising costs, the downward space is limited, and short - selling options can be held [34]. - 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber: The supply pressure is easing, demand is slowly recovering, but inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It's advisable to wait and see and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - Soda Ash: It's oscillating. With increasing supply and high inventory, and reduced demand from float glass, it's under pressure, and attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [36]. Agricultural Products - Soybean and Soybean Meal: Affected by the tariff adjustment, the price of soybean meal may rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips after the Sino - US trade eases [37]. - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: The contradiction between soybean and palm oil is differentiated. It's expected that soybean meal will be stronger than oil, and there is a risk of oil price decline [38]. - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil: It's recommended to be bullish on rapeseed meal and bearish on rapeseed oil in the short term, with the risk of changes in trade relations [39]. - Soybean No.1: Driven by the rise of US soybeans, the price is strengthening, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy changes [40]. - Corn: The supply is abundant, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US economic and trade agreement [41]. - Hog: The futures price rebounds, but the spot price continues to fall. There is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [42]. - Egg: The futures price is strong, and it's advisable to wait for the opportunity to go short in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton: The short - term trend is oscillating, and it's advisable to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US negotiations on trade [44]. - Sugar: The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Attention should be paid to weather and crop growth [45]. - Apple: The market is trading the inventory pressure in advance, and a bearish strategy is maintained [46]. - Timber: With low inventory providing support, it's advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp: The supply is relatively loose, demand is average, and it's advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48]. Financial Products - Stock Index: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to maintain a balanced layout and focus on technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and also consider cyclical and consumer sectors [49]. - Treasury Bond: The futures are oscillating, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50].