LPG产业风险管理日报-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with the current price oscillating around $65, and OPEC maintaining an increasing production state [2] - The November CP contract price was announced, with propane at $475/ton (-$20) and butane at $460/ton (-$15), better than expected. The equivalent RMB landed cost is about 4394 yuan/ton for propane and 4276 yuan/ton for butane [2] - US propane inventories continued to accumulate this week, reaching a historical high and waiting for an inventory inflection point [2] - The State Council adjusted tariff - adding measures on November 10, 2025. The 24% tariff on US imports will be suspended for one year, and the 10% tariff on PG will remain, which helps stabilize logistics [3] - During the Sino - US talks this week, an agreement was reached on issues such as tariffs and export controls, and the Sino - US economic and trade friction was suspended [4] - The domestic LPG fundamentals are relatively stable. Supply increased this week, while demand remained stable. However, due to the rise in propane price and the decline in PL/PP price, PDH profits were significantly compressed. Continuous or deepening losses may cause negative feedback [4] - PDH losses may cause negative feedback, and propane cracking profits have also shrunk below zero [5] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price Range Prediction - The predicted monthly price range for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.37% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 35.54% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures at 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2512C4400 call options at 60 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at around 4000 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2512P4000 put options at 50 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the PG price drops [1] Industry Data Summary - The report provides price, spread, monthly spread, price ratio, and profit data for various LPG - related products on different dates, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [7] Seasonal Data - The report presents seasonal data for prices, spreads, monthly spreads, price ratios, profits, and freight rates of various LPG - related products, such as LPG futures, FEI, CP, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [9][11][17]