南华期货玉米、淀粉产业日报-20251106

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: November 06, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Northeast corn prices are stable after new - season supply shock, with state - reserve purchases limiting downside; North China prices fluctuate due to selling pressure and acquisition competition; corn prices are still affected by new - season selling pressure but have stopped falling [2] - On Wednesday, the corn futures market had a narrow - range shock, while the starch market was strong; the CBOT corn futures rose due to high US ethanol production [2] - The market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the price may show a bottom - consolidation and potential rebound trend [2] Summary by Category Market Situation - Domestic Corn and Starch Futures: On Wednesday, the corn futures main 01 contract closed at 2134 yuan, with slightly reduced trading volume, slightly increased open interest, and 66351 registered warrants; the starch main 01 contract closed at 2451 yuan, with decreased trading volume and slightly increased open interest [2] - CBOT Corn Futures: On Wednesday, CBOT corn futures closed higher. As of October 31, US ethanol daily production reached a record high of 1.123 million barrels, and strong domestic demand offset the pressure of a bumper harvest [2] Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Selling pressure is dispersed, reducing price pressure; state - reserve purchases in the Northeast support prices; rising prices of surrounding agricultural products indirectly support the corn market [2] - Negative Factors: The pig industry's capacity regulation affects long - term corn feed demand, although short - term demand remains good; late - harvested corn will be listed in mid - to - early November, and there is a risk of concentrated selling pressure; market rumors of wheat auctions and increased grain imports may increase pressure on the corn market [2][3] Price Forecast - Monthly Price Range: Corn is predicted to be in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.43% and a volatility percentile of 53.2%; starch is predicted to be in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.61% and a volatility percentile of 42.30% [3] Price and Spread Data - Domestic Futures Price Changes: From November 4th to 5th, most corn and starch futures contracts had small price changes, with some rising and some remaining flat; the wheat average price decreased by 3 yuan to 2511 yuan [5] - US Agricultural Futures and Import Data: CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat main contracts all rose on the 5th; the US Gulf and West Coast corn import duty - paid prices increased slightly, with import profits of 96.03 yuan and 212.15 yuan respectively [24] Seasonal Charts - The report also includes multiple seasonal charts, such as corn futures month - spread (01 - 05), corn and starch main - contract closing prices, corn and starch futures open interest, corn and wheat price spreads, and corn basis spreads, which can be used to analyze historical price trends and seasonal patterns [6][7][12]