聚丙烯日报：需求端持续拖累，丙烯延续走低-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The acrylene market continues to decline due to weak demand, a loose supply pattern, and limited cost - side support. Although some PDH units in Shandong have shut down or plan to shut down, the acrylene market remains weak. The cost - side support is limited due to the oversupply pressure of international oil prices and the weakness of external propane. The demand side is difficult to improve significantly as downstream new projects are mostly postponed, the overall downstream operating rate has declined, and the terminal demand is entering the off - season [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Acrylene Basis Structure - The acrylene basis structure includes data on the acrylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, and 01 - 05 contract. The acrylene main contract closing price is 5977 yuan/ton (- 49), the East China basis is - 137 yuan/ton (+ 14), and the North China basis is - 195 yuan/ton (- 29) [1][14][8] 2. Acrylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The acrylene production profit and operating rate involve indicators such as the difference between acrylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, acrylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production profit, and MTO production profit. The acrylene capacity utilization rate is 75% (+ 1%) [1][16] 3. Acrylene Import and Export Profit - The acrylene import and export profit is reflected in the import profit, which is - 392 yuan/ton (- 44). It also includes the price differences between South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, and Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR [1][29] 4. Acrylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - For acrylene downstream products, the operating rates and production profits of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are considered. For example, the PP powder operating rate is 43% (+ 2.00%) with a production profit of 100 yuan/ton (+ 70); the propylene oxide operating rate is 69% (+ 1%) with a production profit of - 488 yuan/ton (- 68) [1] 5. Acrylene Inventory - The acrylene inventory includes the acrylene factory inventory, which is 45050 tons (- 1210), and the PP powder factory inventory [1][64]