燃料油日报：科威特11月低硫燃料油发货量预计下滑-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low levels [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contracts of SHFE fuel oil futures and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose at night. The FU and LU prices fluctuated weakly following the crude oil trend, with an unclear short - term trend. The high - low sulfur spread rebounded from the bottom, indicating a marginal change in the strength - weakness pattern [1]. - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have loosened recently, with the crack spread and monthly spread weakening and relatively abundant supply. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the restart of Dangote refinery's RFCC unit has relieved local supply pressure, and the maintenance of Kuwait's Azur refinery has led to a phased decline in shipments. The estimated low - sulfur fuel oil shipments from Kuwait in November are 0 tons, compared with 55500 tons in October. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has certain short - term repair conditions, and the high - low sulfur spread is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.15% at 2731 yuan/ton at night, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.58% at 3296 yuan/ton [1]. - The high - low sulfur spread has rebounded from the bottom, and the fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have loosened with relatively abundant supply. For low - sulfur fuel oil, local supply pressure has been relieved, and Kuwait's shipments are expected to decline in November [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish; Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2]. - Cross - variety strategy: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low levels [2]. Figures - There are multiple figures showing the prices, spreads, closing prices, and trading volumes of Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot, swaps, and domestic fuel oil futures [3][4][11][13]