Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is also rated neutral [12] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with the increase in domestic arrivals, the latest domestic Qingdao port inventory and social inventory have rebounded. With the overseas peak season, domestic arrivals are expected to maintain a good growth rate, and inventory is expected to increase further. However, due to rainfall in overseas main - producing areas, raw material prices are firm, and the cost - side support for natural rubber is strong, limiting the short - term downward space. The domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12] - For cis - polybutadiene rubber, after the sharp decline in the price of upstream butadiene raw materials, since late October, the production profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber has turned from loss to profit, which is conducive to the increase of the upstream device load in the later stage, partially offsetting the support from the recent centralized maintenance of upstream cis - polybutadiene rubber devices. The downstream demand is still resilient, and the supply - demand contradiction of cis - polybutadiene rubber itself is not prominent. It may follow the fluctuations of upstream butadiene raw materials. After the recent sharp decline, the butadiene price has stabilized, but the price weakness is difficult to change under sufficient supply [12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures Prices: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 11,935 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,235 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - Spot Prices: The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,690 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - Heavy - Truck Sales: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% from September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% from 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. It is expected that after November, the cumulative sales will exceed 1 million vehicles [2] - Global Natural Rubber Production and Consumption: According to the ANRPC's September 2025 report forecast, the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - China's Natural Rubber Imports: In September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total exports of standard rubber were 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the exports of smoked sheets were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the exports of latex were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total exports of natural rubber to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the total exports of standard rubber to China were 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the total exports of smoked sheets to China were 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the total exports of latex to China were 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - Automobile Production and Sales: In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [4] - China's Rubber Tire Exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The exports of automobile tires in the first three quarters were 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [4] - EU Passenger - Car Sales: According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), in September 2025, the EU passenger - car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 5, 2025, the RU basis was - 500 yuan/ton (- 75), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 475 yuan/ton (- 20), the NR basis was 941.00 yuan/ton (+ 172.00); the whole latex was 14,350 yuan/ton (- 100), the mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton (- 200), the 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 600 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (- 200) [6] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.30 Thai baht/kg (- 0.70), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40) [7] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [8] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+ 15,439), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,012 tons (+ 17,061), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (- 3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+ 2,015) [8] Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 5, 2025, the BR basis was - 135 yuan/ton (- 30), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private cis - polybutadiene rubber was 9,750 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,458 yuan/ton (- 173) [9] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 66.90% (- 4.81%) [10] - Inventories: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [11]
化工日报：天然橡胶社会库存环比回升-20251106
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-06 03:15