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聚烯烃日报：供强需弱延续，聚烯烃继续下探寻底-20251106
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-06 03:16

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply - demand contradiction in the polyolefin market is prominent, with strong supply and weak demand. Both PE and PP are in a weak pattern [1][2]. - For PE, high supply, limited demand from downstream sectors like agricultural films, and weakening cost - end support lead to its continued weak trend [2]. - For PP, supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and with weak cost - end support, it will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: L主力合约收盘价为6814元/吨（-65），PP主力合约收盘价为6491元/吨（-69）；LL华北现货为6800元/吨（-70），LL华东现货为6920元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6520元/吨（-10）；LL华北基差为-14元/吨（-5），LL华东基差为106元/吨（+35），PP华东基差为29元/吨（+59） [1]. - Upstream Supply: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%），PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - Production Profit: PE油制生产利润为247.4元/吨（-25.3），PP油制生产利润为 - 412.6元/吨（-25.3），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 74.9元/吨（+34.6） [1]. - Imports and Exports: LL进口利润为 - 69.8元/吨（-62.8），PP进口利润为 - 318.2元/吨（-62.5），PP出口利润为 - 8.1美元/吨（+7.8） [1]. - Downstream Demand: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - PE: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and new capacity coming online. Demand is limited, with the growth of agricultural film demand likely to slow down and packaging film demand being weak. The cost - end support is expected to weaken, and it will continue its weak pattern [2]. - PP: The supply - demand contradiction persists. Supply is in excess due to new device commissioning and the return of previously maintained facilities. Demand support is limited, mainly from low - price rigid - demand restocking. It will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously short LLDPE and PP at high prices [3]. - Inter - term: Reverse arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices [3]. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [3].