化工日报：高供应压力下EG延续弱势-20251106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - EG continues its weak trend under high supply pressure. The main EG futures contract closed at 3,914 yuan/ton (+13 yuan/ton, +0.33% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,982 yuan/ton (-13 yuan/ton, -0.33% compared to the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was 71 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$57/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and that of coal-based syngas EG was -818 yuan/ton (down 94 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 562,000 tons (up 39,000 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays, and 499,000 tons (up 16,000 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. With more arrivals planned this week, inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - Overall, on the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and domestic supply is abundant. Overseas, there are still many supply losses, and the import outlook remains unchanged. On the demand side, the downstream polyester market has moderately improved with the cooling weather, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - For trading strategies, it is advisable to cautiously short on rallies for hedging. Given high supply, there is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and port inventory is expected to gradually rise. An inverse spread strategy can be adopted for EG2601 - EG2605, and there is no cross-variety strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents graphs of the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and the spot basis in East China, with data sources from Longzhong and CCF [5][6]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Graphs show the gross profit of ethylene-based, coal-based syngas, naphtha-integrated, and methanol-based ethylene glycol production, as well as the total load and syngas-based load of ethylene glycol. Data sources include Flush, Longzhong, and CCF [9][13][15]. International Price Differential - A graph shows the international price differential between US FOB and Chinese CFR for ethylene glycol, with data from Longzhong [16][18]. Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Graphs display the production and sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct-spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips. Data sources are CCF [17][19][22][26]. Inventory Data - Graphs present the inventory at East China ports, Zhangjiagang Port, Ningbo Port, and other ports, as well as the inventory days of MEG raw materials at Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume at East China ports. Data sources include Longzhong and CCF [28][29][32][37].