Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp futures. The futures price may be priced based on the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. Maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 5, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5360, 4886, and 5374 respectively, with day - on - day increases of 1.36%, 0.29%, and 1.09% and week - on - week increases of 2.25%, 1.20%, and 1.86% respectively. The spot prices of softwood pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and hardwood pulp Goldfish were 5500, 5100, and 4250 respectively, with no day - on - day or week - on - week changes [5] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 680, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.86% month - on - month, while that of Brazilian Goldfish increased by 3.92%. The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5559, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish increasing by 3.87% month - on - month [5] Supply - Side Data - In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a 12.54% increase from August, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a 7.79% increase from August. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 increased by 4.50% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed little change in the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5] Inventory Data - As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend. The futures delivery warehouse inventory decreased slightly during the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5][10] Demand - Side Data - The production of finished paper such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed little change from September 4 to October 30, 2025. White cardboard showed a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters, but whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be observed, and overall demand is still weak [5][10] Valuation Data - On November 5, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle pulp was 214 with a quantile level of 0.902, and the basis of Silver Star pulp was 614 with a quantile level of 0.868. The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513, and that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557 [5]
纸浆数据日报-20251106
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-11-06 03:21