贵金属日报：美国经济成色数据转暖，贵金属延续震荡-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are both rated as cautiously bullish [9][10] - For arbitrage, the strategy is to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - For options, the strategy is to hold off [10] Core View - The U.S. economic data is warming up, and precious metals continue to fluctuate. The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the demand for gold investment may slightly weaken, but the logic of gold as a substitute for U.S. dollar assets remains valid in the medium to long term. Both gold and silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [2][9][10] Market Analysis - In the U.S., the ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, far exceeding the expected 30,000, and the previous month's data was revised to a decrease of 29,000. The overall labor demand is still slowing down, and wage growth remains stagnant. The ISM services PMI in October rose 2.4 points to 52.4, reaching an eight - month high [2] - In the Eurozone, the final services PMI in October was 53%, better than the preliminary value of 52.6%, pushing the composite PMI to 52.5, the highest since May 2023. Germany's service industry recovered strongly, while France's service industry contracted for 14 consecutive months [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 915.42 yuan/gram, closed at 912.26 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 916.38 yuan/gram, up 0.45% from the afternoon close [3] - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,230 yuan/kg, closed at 11,276 yuan/kg, a change of 0.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 805,726 lots, and the open interest was 244,274 lots. The night - session closed at 11,381 yuan/kg, up 0.93% from the afternoon close [3] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 5, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.159%, up 7.78 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.534%, up 2.21 BP from the previous trading day [4] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Trading Volume Changes - On November 5, 2025, in the Au2512 contract, the long position decreased by 1,632 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position decreased by 339 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 463,600 lots, a change of 2.10% from the previous trading day [5] - In the Ag2512 contract, the long position decreased by 8,927 lots, and the short position decreased by 10,617 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,390,882 lots, a change of 2.82% from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,038.63 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,168 tons, a decrease of 22 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 5, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 805.96 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 80.90, a change of - 0.70% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.60, a change of 2.10% from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Analysis - On November 5, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 59,552 kg, a change of - 7.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 508,790 kg, a change of - 22.85% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kg [8] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish, the Au2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 900 yuan/gram - 950 yuan/gram [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, the Ag2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,100 yuan/kg - 11,600 yuan/kg [10] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: Hold off [10]