新能源及有色金属日报：现货成交整体偏淡，铜价仍陷震荡格局-20251106

I. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On Hold [8] - Options: Short Put [8] II. Core Viewpoints - The tight supply at the mine end and the continuously low TC prices remain unchanged. Overseas smelters are exploring new processing fee pricing logics, and the China Non - Ferrous Metals Supply Association has proposed setting upper limits on some non - ferrous metal smelting capacities. The positive factors on the demand side are mostly at the expectation level, with actual consumption not being very impressive. The November strategy is to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, and sell - hedging can be considered when the price approaches 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. III. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Key Data (1) Futures Quotes - On November 5, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 85,000 yuan/ton and closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the previous trading day's closing. The night - session main contract opened at 85,550 yuan/ton and closed at 85,900 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon closing [1]. (2) Spot Situation - According to SMM, the average spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 25 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a transaction price range of 85,190 - 85,480 yuan/ton. The copper price decline stimulated downstream point - pricing demand, but overall market transactions were still light. It is expected that the premium will stabilize today after short - term restocking [2]. (3) Important Information Summary - Economic Data: In the US, the ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding the expected 30,000. The overall labor demand is slowing, and salary growth is stagnant. The US ISM Services PMI in October rose 2.4 points to 52.4, a new eight - month high. In the Eurozone, the October Services PMI final value was 53%, better than the initial value of 52.6%, driving the Composite PMI to a new high since May 2023. German services recovered strongly, while French services contracted for 14 consecutive months [3]. - Mine End: The Canadian government plans to set up a C$2 billion (about US$1.4 billion) critical minerals sovereign fund, allocate hundreds of millions of Canadian dollars for mining expenditure, and expand exploration tax credits. The budget deficit is expected to reach C$78.3 billion by March 31, 2026. The budget is yet to be approved by Parliament [4]. - Smelting and Import: The US Pumpkin Hollow restarted to strengthen supply - chain security. Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production forecast to 1.31 - 1.34 million tons, but still aims to exceed last year's output. The company emphasizes the production growth of its mines and believes it won't affect the 2030 target of 1.7 million tons [5]. - Consumption: Yingtan City promotes the high - quality development of the copper - based new material industry cluster. China plans to build 1,000 large - scale AI data centers in the next five years [6]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 300 tons to 133,975 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,414 tons to 42,561 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 200,100 tons, with a change of 17,500 tons from the previous week [7]. 2. Strategy - Copper: The strategy is to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the recommended buying range of 85,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton. Sell - hedging can be considered when the price approaches 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Arbitrage: On hold [8]. - Options: Short put [8]. 3. Data Tables - Price and Basis Data: It includes spot premiums of different - grade copper, LME (0 - 3), inventory of different exchanges, warehouse receipts, LME注销仓单占比, and various spreads and arbitrage ratios [27][28][29][30].