原油日报：美国流动性紧张推动油价走弱-20251106

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent liquidity crunch in the US market due to the extended government shutdown has led to a general decline in risk - asset prices, including crude oil. High tanker freight rates have made it difficult for Western resources to arbitrage, and the market is gradually digesting the impact of Russian oil sanctions. The short - term outlook for oil prices is range - bound, while the medium - term strategy is a bearish allocation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Crude oil futures prices declined: The December - delivery light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 96 cents to $59.60 per barrel, a 1.59% drop; the January - delivery Brent crude oil futures in London dropped 92 cents to $63.52 per barrel, a 1.43% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.95% at 458 yuan per barrel [1]. - UAE's oil inventory: As of the week ending November 5, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 18.607 million barrels, up 851,000 barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels to 6.713 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreased by 79,000 barrels to 3.234 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 2.166 million barrels to 8.66 million barrels [1]. - OPEC supply: In September, the daily crude oil supply of 9 OPEC countries with quotas was 23.87 million barrels, an increase of 760,000 barrels from August and 940,000 barrels higher than the target daily output. Saudi Arabia's daily supply was 9.98 million barrels, an increase of 550,000 barrels from August, meeting the target. OPEC+ will further increase production slightly in December but will suspend the production - increase plan from January to March 2026 due to seasonal factors. From January to March next year, Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman will increase compensatory production cuts monthly, with a total reduction of 822,000 barrels per day in June to compensate for previous over - production [1]. - Libyan oil production plan: Libya's current oil production is close to 1.4 million barrels per day. The goal is to increase production to 2 million barrels per day in the next five years, 1.6 million barrels per day next year, and 1.8 million barrels per day the year after [1]. - Saudi Aramco's demand forecast: Saudi Aramco's CEO expects global oil demand to reach 106 million barrels per day in 2025, with strong demand growth in 2026 [1]. Investment Logic The extended US government shutdown has caused a liquidity crunch, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. High tanker freight rates have hindered Western resource arbitrage, and the market is digesting the impact of Russian oil sanctions. The lack of continuous upward movement in the Dubai month - spread indicates a slowdown in the shift from Russian oil to Middle Eastern oil [2]. Strategy Oil prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term and a bearish allocation is recommended in the medium term [3].