新能源及有色金属日报：铝价回调即是买入保值机会-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report's Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to have limited downside on corrections, and there is potential for an upward breakout if the social inventory drawdown progresses smoothly. The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum is not in surplus, and consumption is showing good growth, with the potential for a real peak consumption season in November - December. For alumina, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise. For aluminum alloy, the report is also cautiously bullish [6][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,300 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; East China aluminum spot premium is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,160 yuan/ton, with the spot premium unchanged at - 160 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,170 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium is - 145 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On November 5, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract opened at 21,395 yuan/ton, closed at 21,395 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 21,440 yuan/ton and a low of 21,235 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 193,349 lots, and the open interest was 225,136 lots [2] Inventory - As of November 5, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 64,194 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 550,450 tons, down 2,125 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On November 5, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,985 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,995 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 318 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On November 5, 2025, the main alumina futures contract opened at 2,765 yuan/ton, closed at 2,772 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a decrease of 0.11%, with a high of 2,780 yuan/ton and a low of 2,752 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 216,397 lots, and the open interest was 421,899 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 5, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil - grade scrap aluminum was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical scrap aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 58,700 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,120 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 120 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland overseas has reduced production due to an electrical equipment accident, affecting about 200,000 tons of production capacity. Even with the expectation of new and restarted production overseas, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is not in surplus. In terms of consumption, although the peak consumption season has been mediocre in terms of social inventory, the aluminum - water ratio has reached a record high of 77%, indicating good consumption growth and is expected to enter the real peak consumption season in November - December. The smooth progress of Sino - US negotiations is a positive factor, and there are still macro - positive factors. Aluminum price corrections are unlikely to be deep. Attention should be paid to the pace of social inventory drawdown. If the drawdown is smooth, there is potential for aluminum prices to rise [6] Alumina - A northwest aluminum plant purchased 10,000 tons of alumina at a price of 2,990 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. The bauxite shipment from Guinea is expected to resume, and the Ningba Mine has started barge operations to ship 1.5 million tons of inventory. The supply pressure of bauxite remains. The spot price of alumina is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward - looking alumina due to rich profits and winter - storage demand, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise. The cost side still has a small downward space, and the reduction in ore prices has not improved the alumina smelting loss. The supply side has not seen large - scale production cuts, and there is still an expectation of new production capacity. Currently, there are few positive factors and expectations in the fundamental data [7][8] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish on aluminum, neutral on alumina, and cautiously bullish on aluminum alloy. Arbitrage: Long the near - term and short the far - term in SHFE aluminum [9]