新能源及有色金属日报：锌价回调现货贴水修复-20251106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the zinc price correction, the spot discount was repaired, and downstream rigid demand remained. The raw material inventory days of smelters decreased, and the procurement demand for ore was strong due to winter storage needs, leading to a significant decline in TC and compressed smelting profits. The expected supply growth rate declined in November, and if TC continued to fall, supply pressure was expected to ease. The LME warehouse receipts remained at a low level, the spot premium was still high, the export window remained open, and the warehouse receipt risk was not alleviated. Domestic social inventory did not accumulate for a long time, and the accumulation amplitude was lower than expected. Micro - data gradually changed from bearish to bullish, while the macro - environment remained positive. [5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium was $138.78 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,500 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 75 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,480 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,480 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton. [2] - Futures: On November 5, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,605 yuan/ton, closed at 22,650 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day). The trading volume was 100,837 lots, and the open interest was 112,477 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,685 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,505 yuan/ton. [3] - Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 161,700 tons, a change of 300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 34,000 tons, a change of 175 tons from the previous trading day. [4]