农产品日报：糖价走势趋弱，郑棉延续震荡-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term upward space is limited due to factors like potential increase in hedging positions and weak downstream demand, but long - term prospects are optimistic considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption [2][3] - For sugar, the 25/26 global sugar market may be in a bear cycle with an oversupply pattern. Before the end of the year, it is expected to fluctuate, and there may be new lows next year [5][6] - For pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and the price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7][8] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,615 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton (+0.59%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,627 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: In the 2025/26 season, the cotton - planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil is expected to be 1.46 million hectares (21.9 million mu), a year - on - year reduction of 5.7%, while the output is expected to be 2.62 million tons, a slight increase of 2.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, but the actual purchase volume of US cotton by China is unclear. The release of key data is postponed, and the short - term upward space of the outer market is limited due to supply pressure and weak export performance [2] - Domestic: The new - year cotton market starts with low inventory, but the supply is supplemented. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, but the short - term upward space of cotton prices is limited due to potential hedging positions and weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. In the short term, there is a possibility of a callback, while in the long term, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.73%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] - Market Information: The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 season in India (excluding the amount used for ethanol production) is 34.35 million tons, and the net production (after excluding ethanol usage) is 30.95 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Supply surplus pressure has pushed the price below 15 cents. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined in the short term, the long - term rebound momentum is limited due to overall northern hemisphere production increases [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The impact of typhoons has subsided, and there is a strong expectation of domestic sugar production increase. However, the price has fallen near the production cost line, and the downward space is limited due to stricter syrup control policies [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. It is expected to fluctuate before the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5360 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton (+1.36%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Market Information: The spot price of imported wood pulp was basically stable, with only minor adjustments [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions are not good, and the overall supply pattern remains loose [7] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the United States and domestic demand weakness are the core factors suppressing pulp prices. During the peak season, downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]