金融期货早评-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft can help identify future key focus areas. The Sino - US trade talks in Kuala Lumpur reached a phased consensus, which will reduce the impact of tariff policies on the market and improve market risk appetite [2]. - It is expected that the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. Enterprises are advised to conduct exchange - rate risk management [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term as the Fed's rate - cut expectation has cooled, but there is support below [5]. - For treasury bonds, a long - term bullish view is maintained, and mid - term long positions should be held [6]. - The short - term bullish trend of container shipping futures on the European line will continue, but the widening basis between futures and spot prices increases volatility risk [10]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. In the long - term, the price center of gravity is expected to rise, and investors can look for mid - term buying opportunities on dips [15]. - Copper prices are under pressure from the rising US dollar index, but there is support below. Aluminum prices are expected to be in an upward channel in the long - term, while alumina prices may be weak in the short - term [17][18]. - Zinc prices are expected to be in a strong and volatile state, and tin prices have sufficient bottom support [20][21]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to be in a volatile and strong state, while industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a wide - range volatile state [23][25]. - Lead prices are expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short - term [26]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, challenging previous lows [28]. - Coking coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black market, and their prices are expected to rise [30]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be in a volatile state, with high inventory and weak demand [31]. - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars this week, with limited upward or downward breakthrough potential [35]. - LPG is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, with limited fundamental support [37]. - PX - PTA is expected to be in a strong and volatile state along with the cost side, but the oversupply expectation of PTA still exists [40]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, and a short - selling strategy is recommended on rallies [44]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and it is recommended to hold previous short - call positions [46]. - PP and PE are in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and their prices are expected to be weak [49][51]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be weak and prone to decline, and short - selling opportunities after rallies are recommended [53][54]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be weak, and profit - taking is recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved [55][57]. - Asphalt is in a weak state. Short - term waiting or short - selling on rallies is recommended [59]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state, with support below but no strong upward drivers [62]. - Urea is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, facing pressure due to weak domestic demand [63]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, soda ash is expected to be weak, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda's market pressure is increasing [64][66][67]. - Pulp and offset paper are expected to be in a relatively volatile state in the short - term [68]. - Logs are in a weak state, and short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse arbitrage opportunities are recommended [69][70]. - Propylene is expected to be in a weak state, with an overall loose supply situation [72]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: US employment data exceeded market expectations. The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft was released, and the Sino - US trade talks reached a phased consensus. The US government has been shut down for 36 days [1][2]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: It is expected that the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. Enterprises are advised to conduct exchange - rate risk management [4]. - Stock Index: The Fed's rate - cut expectation has cooled, and the stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - Treasury Bonds: A long - term bullish view is maintained, and mid - term long positions should be held [6]. - Container Shipping on the European Line: The short - term bullish trend will continue, but the widening basis between futures and spot prices increases volatility risk [10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: They are in a short - term adjustment phase. In the long - term, the price center of gravity is expected to rise, and investors can look for mid - term buying opportunities on dips [15]. - Copper: Copper prices are under pressure from the rising US dollar index, but there is support below. Some downstream orders have improved [17]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum prices are expected to be in an upward channel in the long - term, while alumina prices may be weak in the short - term. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum prices [18][19]. - Zinc: It is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with support at the bottom in November [20]. - Tin: It has sufficient bottom support, and a long - term bullish view is maintained [21]. - Carbonate Lithium: It is expected to be in a volatile and strong state, with a relatively stable supply increment and strong demand in November [23]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has a supply reduction expectation, and polysilicon's fundamentals are still weak [25]. - Lead: It is expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short - term due to supply disturbances [26]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: They are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, challenging previous lows. The anti - dumping investigation on hot - rolled coils may affect far - month contracts [28]. - Coking Coal & Coke: They are suitable as long - positions in the black market, and their prices are expected to rise due to downstream replenishment and supply restrictions [30]. - Ferroalloys: They are in a state of high inventory and weak demand, and are expected to be in a volatile state [31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars this week, with limited upward or downward breakthrough potential [35]. - LPG: It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, with limited fundamental support [37]. - PTA - PX: It is expected to be in a strong and volatile state along with the cost side, but the oversupply expectation of PTA still exists [40]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, and a short - selling strategy is recommended on rallies [44]. - Methanol: Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and it is recommended to hold previous short - call positions [46]. - PP and PE: They are in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and their prices are expected to be weak [49][51]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: They are expected to be weak and prone to decline, and short - selling opportunities after rallies are recommended [53][54]. - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be weak, and profit - taking is recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved [55][57]. - Asphalt: It is in a weak state. Short - term waiting or short - selling on rallies is recommended [59]. - Rubber & 20 - number Rubber: They are expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state, with support below but no strong upward drivers [62]. - Urea: It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, facing pressure due to weak domestic demand [63]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash is expected to be weak, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda's market pressure is increasing [64][66][67]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: They are expected to be in a relatively volatile state in the short - term [68]. - Logs: They are in a weak state, and short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse arbitrage opportunities are recommended [69][70]. - Propylene: It is expected to be in a weak state, with an overall loose supply situation [72].