国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment outlooks for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The outlooks range from high-level fluctuations to weak and volatile trends, with most commodities showing a neutral trend strength [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price Movement: Futures contract I 2601 closed at 776.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.06%). Imported ore prices decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton across different grades, while some domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis for I 2601 against Super Special decreased by 7.1 yuan to 118.5 yuan [5] - Trend: High-level fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][6] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Price Movement: Rebar futures RB2601 closed at 3,024 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan (-1.21%); hot-rolled coil futures HC2601 closed at 3,253 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan (-0.85%). Spot prices for both decreased, and the basis for both futures contracts also decreased [9] - Trend: Weak and volatile due to sector sentiment, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price Movement: Ferrosilicon futures prices increased, with the 2601 contract closing at 5560 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. Silicomanganese futures prices also rose, with the 2601 contract closing at 5776 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. Spot prices for ferrosilicon decreased, while the price of silicomanganese:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 remained unchanged. The basis and various spreads showed different changes [13] - Trend: Wide-range fluctuations due to a combination of long and short factors, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][15] Coke and Coking Coal - Price Movement: Coking coal futures JM2601 closed at 1268.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan (1.2%); coke futures J2601 closed at 1753 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (1.4%). Some spot prices for coking coal increased, while others remained stable. Coke spot prices also showed some increases [16] - Trend: High-level fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][17] Logs - Price Movement: Different log futures contracts showed small price increases, while trading volume and open interest showed significant changes. Spot-futures spreads also changed [19] - Trend: Fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [18][21]