MTM(SH:688029) Haitong Securities International·2025-11-06 04:34Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating for the company [1][11] Core Views - The company has shown stable core business growth, with revenue reaching RMB 2.38 billion (+18.29%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 509 million (+12.90%) in the first three quarters of 2025. Q3 2025 revenue was RMB 815 million (+20.12%) [5][11] - The overseas business continues to grow rapidly, with exports reaching approximately RMB 1.4 billion, up 42% year-on-year, and Q3 2025 overseas revenue at RMB 490 million, up 38% year-on-year [5][11] - The impact of centralized procurement is stabilizing, and channel inventory is at historic lows, which is expected to support steady domestic business growth in 2026 [5][11] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: RMB 2,411 million, RMB 2,755 million, RMB 3,285 million, RMB 3,947 million, and RMB 4,750 million, with respective growth rates of 21.8%, 14.3%, 19.2%, 20.1%, and 20.4% [4][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from RMB 486 million in 2023A to RMB 944 million in 2027E, with growth rates of 47.0%, 13.9%, 20.5%, 19.5%, and 18.4% [4][6] - The company’s EPS is expected to increase from RMB 2.59 in 2023A to RMB 5.02 in 2027E [4][6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on reducing inventory and risk, avoiding short-term volume and performance stacking, which has led to channel inventory being at historic lows [5][11] - The CME integration is progressing steadily, with a new plant in Thailand expected to start production by the end of 2025, initially supplying the USA and later expanding to Europe and other markets [5][11]