双粕上涨，盘面保持强势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance with different trends for each variety. For example, protein meals are strong, while some oils are weak, and other commodities are mostly in a state of oscillation [1][8]. - International factors such as US government policies, South American weather, and global trade relations, as well as domestic factors like consumer demand and import/export volumes, significantly influence the market [3][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils - View: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be weak due to strong production expectations for Malaysian palm oil. Domestic oil trends were divided, with palm and rapeseed oil oscillating weakly. - Logic: Concerns about US soybean export demand led to a decline in US soybeans. The US government's "shutdown" affected data updates. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean arrivals are expected to be high, slowing down the de - stocking of domestic soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil is likely to accumulate inventory in October, while Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low, and Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. Russian rapeseed harvest may increase domestic rapeseed oil supply [7]. - Outlook: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate weakly, while soybean oil may oscillate [7]. Protein Meals - View: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are rising, and the market remains strong. - Logic: The retention of the 10% tariff on US soybeans by China drove up domestic soybean meal prices, and rapeseed meal followed. Internationally, Chinese purchases are expected to boost US soybean exports in the next 2 - 3 months. The US soybean supply - demand balance may tighten further if the yield is revised down. Brazilian old - crop soybean exports decreased in October, but it has a price advantage. In China, short - term import crushing margins are still in the red, but the traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter may drive up prices. Medium - to long - term factors such as Chinese purchases, South American weather, and consumption will determine the price increase [2][3][8]. - Outlook: US soybeans will oscillate, and domestic soybean meal will oscillate with an upward bias [3][8]. Corn/Starch - View: Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates. - Logic: Domestic corn prices are generally stable. In the Northeast, farmers are reluctant to sell as storage conditions improve, and transportation bottlenecks increase costs. New grain listing pressure may still affect prices later. With high yields, the cost of gathering grain at ports may decrease, and the demand for building inventories is not strong [9][10]. - Outlook: The market will oscillate, and short - term observation is recommended [10]. Pigs - View: Supply and demand are loose, and pig prices oscillate. - Logic: Futures rebounded with reduced positions, while spot prices remained weak due to high supply. Short - term, second - fattening is affected by price rebounds. Medium - term, the large number of sows in the first half of 2025 will lead to increased pig supply in the fourth quarter. Long - term, sow culling is expected to accelerate, reducing supply pressure in the second half of 2026. Demand is slightly increasing with the drop in temperature, and group farms are actively selling [10]. - Outlook: Prices will oscillate weakly in the short - term, and long - term prices may be supported by sow culling [10]. Natural Rubber - View: The market oscillates and adjusts, with a bearish sentiment. - Logic: The market is still weak, but the decline has slowed. The difference in valuation between RU and NR may lead to a narrowing of the spread. Without new macro - level support, prices may continue to decline. However, there may still be speculation about the end of the domestic tapping season and RU warehouse receipts [11][12]. - Outlook: Prices will oscillate at the bottom with high elasticity, and short - term focus is on expanding the RU - NR spread [12]. Synthetic Rubber - View: The market rebounds from the bottom, and attention should be paid to changes in trading sentiment. - Logic: The BR contract rebounded after reaching a low. Lower prices increased downstream purchasing interest, and the stabilization of butadiene also supported the market. However, butadiene supply is expected to be in surplus in the next two months [13][14]. - Outlook: Before the supply - demand imbalance of butadiene is resolved, short - selling on rallies is recommended [14]. Cotton - View: The main contract oscillates, with limited upside and downside. - Logic: New - season cotton production in Xinjiang is lower than expected, and higher acquisition costs supported prices in October. Macro - level benefits such as improved Sino - US trade relations may promote cotton imports and textile exports in the future, but the short - term impact is limited. New cotton listings and hedging pressure may limit price increases, while cost support restricts price drops [14]. - Outlook: In the short - term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range; in the long - term, the cotton market may reduce inventory and prices may rise [14]. Sugar - View: The strategy of short - selling on rallies is maintained. - Logic: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has passed its peak, but new sugar supply from the Northern Hemisphere will increase. Brazil's production is slightly higher than last year, and Thailand and India are expected to increase production in the new season. Domestically, demand from August to September was average, and industrial inventories increased. Although import controls and limited import quotas supported prices, the overall supply is expected to increase [15]. - Outlook: In the medium - to long - term, prices will oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [15]. Pulp - View: The market rises on high volume, and the enthusiasm for cash - and - carry arbitrage increases. - Logic: Futures prices rose due to expectations of rising paper prices and increasing wood chip prices. However, the long - standing negative factors in the pulp market, such as low demand for softwood pulp, over - supply of hardwood pulp, and high - cost futures contracts, limit price increases. There are also some positive factors, such as rising packaging paper prices and improving cultural paper demand [16][17]. - Outlook: The market will oscillate, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [17]. Offset Printing Paper - View: Spot prices are stable, and the market oscillates. - Logic: On November 5, prices in Shandong remained unchanged. The supply of new production capacity is stabilizing, and the supply surplus is still severe. Demand from publishing tenders has started, but social orders are not strong. Some paper mills plan to raise prices in early November, but the market is waiting and watching [18]. - Outlook: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to new factors affecting market sentiment [19]. Logs - View: Spot prices are stable, and the market oscillates. - Logic: Log prices in ports remained stable this week. Traders' active sales and weak sales of laminated wood put pressure on prices. New Zealand's log imports may face problems such as blue - stain wood. However, the current low valuation and inventory in Jiangsu limit further price drops [21]. - Outlook: The market will oscillate at the bottom, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for speculators [21]. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The special index shows that the commodity 20 index increased by 0.18% to 2526.40, the industrial product index remained unchanged at 2213.59, and the PPI commodity index decreased by 0.17% to 1335.37 [179]. - Sector Index: The agricultural product index on November 5, 2025, was 931.46, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 0.52%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.01%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.44% [180].