“从债券市场视角看“十五五”规划建议

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal emphasizes actively developing direct financing such as equity and bonds, which points out the core direction for the future development of the bond market. The bond market needs to balance "scale growth" and "structural optimization" and deepen its pricing function to support the high - quality development of the real economy [2][5] - The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal has both short - term and long - term impacts on bond market interest rates. Short - term emotional fluctuations will gradually subside, and credit bond yields may continue to fluctuate within a range [7][9][10] - The bond market should focus on supporting key areas such as science and technology innovation, consumption, rural revitalization, green transformation, and private economy, and promote product innovation and mechanism optimization [11][12][13] - China's bond market will speed up the two - way opening process, expanding the scope of participants and deepening infrastructure construction [17][18][19] - The bond market should continue to strengthen risk prevention in key areas such as real estate, local debt, and small and medium - sized financial institutions, and improve the risk disposal mechanism [20][21][22] - In the credit bond market, a strategy of combining stable allocation and careful bond selection should be adopted, focusing on high - growth industries in line with the "15th Five - Year Plan" direction and paying attention to tail risks [24][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Question 1: What new requirements does the re - mention of "accelerating the construction of a financial power" in the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal put forward for the development of the bond market? - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal continues the policy tone of "accelerating the construction of a financial power", with more in - depth requirements than the "14th Five - Year Plan". It aims to promote the financial system to a higher - quality development stage [2] - As of October 2025, China's bond market has become the world's second - largest and Asia's largest, with a stock size of about 194.25 trillion yuan and a credit bond stock size of about 39.25 trillion yuan [2] - The bond market needs to balance "scale growth" and "structural optimization" and deepen its pricing function to support the high - quality development of the real economy [5] - Credit rating is an important infrastructure in the bond market. In the future, it needs to strengthen the construction of risk identification and early - warning capabilities to help the high - quality development of the bond market [6] 3.2 Question 2: How to view the interest rate trend of the bond market after the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal? - Historically, before the release of long - term plans, bond market interest rates may fluctuate greatly due to policy uncertainty. After the policy is clear, market sentiment stabilizes and interest rate fluctuations narrow [8] - Before the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, credit bond yields were volatile. After the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft, market sentiment gradually stabilized, and credit spreads narrowed [9] - In the future, credit bond yields may continue to fluctuate within a range. Short - term emotional fluctuations will gradually subside, and long - term interest rate trends will be affected by the overall economic deployment and policy orientation of the meeting [9][10] 3.3 Question 3: Which key areas of financing development does the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal support for the bond market? - Science and technology innovation: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes the core position of science and technology innovation. As of October 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of science and technology innovation bonds was about 1.7 trillion yuan, and the scale is expected to continue to expand [11][13] - Consumption: The proposal deploys to boost consumption. The bond market has begun to support the consumption field, and consumer - related ABS is expected to expand [12][13] - Rural revitalization: The bond market should support rural development. As of 2025, the issuance of rural revitalization bonds was 818 million yuan, and more policy support is needed [14] - Green transformation: The green bond market has the largest scale in the world. In 2025, the issuance of green bonds was 493.2 billion yuan, and the stock size was about 2.7 trillion yuan. The scale is expected to continue to increase [15] - Private economy: Although policies support the private economy, it still takes time to see the effect. In 2025, the proportion of private enterprise bond issuance in credit bonds was only 2% [15][16] 3.4 Question 4: How will the opening pattern of the bond market evolve under the requirement of high - level opening up? - China's bond market has improved its opening - up level through "bringing in" and "going out". As of September 2025, overseas institutions held 3.78 trillion yuan of inter - bank market bonds, accounting for 2.2% of the total custody volume [17][18] - In the future, the two - way opening of the bond market may be accelerated, including expanding the scope of participants and deepening infrastructure construction [19] 3.5 Question 5: How will bond risk prevention work be carried out under the continuation of the risk - prevention tone? - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal emphasizes effectively preventing and resolving various risks, mainly focusing on real estate, local debt, and small and medium - sized financial institutions [20] - As of September 2025, the scale of defaulted bonds in the bond market was 739.406 billion yuan, and the proportion of publicly disclosed completed disposal was 22.8%. The risk disposal mechanism needs to be improved [22] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" mentions the role of the risk - sharing mechanism in supporting venture capital. Currently, the participation of venture capital institutions in the bond market is limited, and more support measures may be introduced in the future [23] 3.6 Question 6: What investment opportunities does the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal bring to the credit bond market? - A strategy of combining stable allocation and careful bond selection should be adopted, focusing on high - growth industries in line with the "15th Five - Year Plan" direction and paying attention to tail risks [24] - Industries such as science and technology innovation, advanced manufacturing, and green low - carbon have strong bond attractiveness. Some state - owned real estate enterprise bonds and certain urban investment bonds also have certain investment value [25]