Bank of China Securities·2025-11-06 05:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 9.57 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 21,692.56 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.92%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1,262.79 billion, down 4.90% year-on-year. However, the third quarter showed a revenue increase of 2.34% year-on-year and a 3.18% quarter-on-quarter growth, indicating a positive trend [4][10]. - The company is experiencing steady growth in oil and gas production, with a total output of 1,377.2 million barrels, a 2.6% increase year-on-year. The renewable energy sector is also growing rapidly, with wind and solar power generation increasing by 72.2% [9][10]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantage across its entire industry chain, particularly in refining and chemical transformation, which is progressing well [4][6]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved an EBITDA of RMB 318,146 million, with a projected net profit of RMB 1,660.51 billion for 2025, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 10.5 times [6][8]. - The average Brent crude oil price for the first three quarters of 2025 was USD 70.93 per barrel, a decrease of 14.3% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for the same period was 21.09%, down 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [9][10]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was RMB 3,431 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [9]. Segment Performance - The oil and gas segment generated an operating profit of RMB 1,251.03 billion, while the renewable energy and refining segments reported profits of RMB 162.40 billion and RMB 144.53 billion, respectively [9][10]. - Natural gas sales reached 2,185.41 billion cubic meters, a 4.2% increase year-on-year, with the segment achieving a revenue of RMB 4,473.38 billion, up 5.3% [9][10]. Valuation Metrics - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 1,660.51 billion, RMB 1,694.82 billion, and RMB 1,727.05 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5, 10.3, and 10.1 times [6][8]. - The report anticipates a dividend yield of 4.4% for 2025, with a projected dividend of RMB 0.4 per share [8].