南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of soybeans is currently in a stalemate due to selling pressure and cautious purchasing by traders, but the price correction is limited by factors such as the graded - pricing acquisition by CGC and the expected increase in acquisition at more depots. The futures market is strong, closing at a multi - month high, and the bottom of the new - season domestic soybean price is becoming clearer [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the soybean market. Bullish factors include the acquisition by CGC's Hulunbuir depot, the reduction in high - protein soybean production, and the absence of auction arrangements this week. Bearish factors are the possible resumption and expansion of US soybean imports after the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement and the extended selling period due to selling pressure at the grass - roots level [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - Price Forecast: The monthly price range forecast for the Soybean No.1 11 contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.11% and a historical percentile of 33.6% [3]. - Risk Strategy: - Inventory Management: For planting entities with high demand for selling new soybeans after the autumn harvest and large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits by short - selling 30% of the Soybean No.1 futures contract A2601 when the price is above 4100 [3]. - Procurement Management: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider going long on contracts A2603 and A2605 after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Spot selling pressure restrains the market, and traders are cautious about purchasing at high prices, focusing on high - quality supplies. The spot price is in a short - term stalemate [4]. - CGC's graded - pricing acquisition supports the price of high - quality soybeans and props up the market, limiting the price correction [4]. - Transportation capacity restricts the outward shipment from the Northeast production area. The price of high - quality soybeans in the South production area is firm, and the ordinary soybean market is stable. The reduction in production supports the price [4]. - On Wednesday, the Soybean No.1 futures market had a large - volume increase, reversing the adjustment since October 29 and reaching a multi - month closing high. The main 01 contract rose 47 yuan/ton to close at 4123 yuan, with slightly lower open interest and record - high trading volume. The number of registered warehouse receipts was approximately 10,088 hands [4]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: CGC's Hulunbuir depot started to purchase new - season domestic soybeans on the 6th, with graded pricing, sending a market - supporting signal. The reduction in high - protein soybean production supports market sentiment and purchasing behavior, and there are no auction arrangements this week [4]. - Bearish Factors: After the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, China may resume and expand the import of US soybeans, which is negative for domestic low - and medium - protein soybean supplies. The selling period at the grass - roots level may be extended due to selling pressure [5]. 3.4 Spot Price and Basis - Spot Price: On November 5, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3920 yuan, 3890 yuan, 3960 yuan, and 3980 yuan respectively [6]. - Basis: The basis of the main contract for domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun on November 5, 2025, was - 203 yuan, - 165 yuan, - 95 yuan, and - 75 yuan respectively [6]. 3.5 Futures Price - On November 5, 2025, compared with November 4, the closing prices of Soybean No.1 contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 increased by 4 yuan (0.10%), 68 yuan (1.68%), 70 yuan (1.72%), 68 yuan (1.66%), 71 yuan (1.73%), and 68 yuan (1.66%) respectively [7].