市场震荡维持，ADP就业数据强于预期

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Wednesday saw a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In October, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 people, exceeding the expected increase of 28,000 people. The previous value was revised from a decrease of 32,000 people to a decrease of 29,000 people. ADP reported that last month, U.S. employment rebounded from two months of weakness, but the scope of the rebound was not broad. Education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth, while employers in professional business services, information, leisure, and the hotel industry laid off employees for the third consecutive month. In October, the year - on - year salary increase remained the same as the previous month, with 4.5% for those who did not change jobs and 6.7% for job - hoppers [2]. - The U.S. Treasury set the quarterly refinancing scale at $125 billion, in line with market expectations. It plans to issue $58 billion of 3 - year Treasury bonds on November 10, $42 billion of 10 - year Treasury bonds on November 12, and $25 billion of 30 - year Treasury bonds on November 13, and keep the new issuance auction scale of 10 - year inflation - protected bonds (TIPS) in January at $21 billion. The U.S. Treasury expects the auction market to remain stable for at least the next few quarters and plans to increase the Treasury issuance scale by mid - 2026 [2]. - The U.S. federal government's "shutdown" has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record of 35 days from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, becoming the longest - lasting government "shutdown" in U.S. history. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office stated that if the "shutdown" lasts for six weeks, the economic loss will rise to $11 billion, and it is expected that the annual growth rate of the U.S. real GDP in the fourth quarter will decline by 1 - 2 percentage points. The record - breaking "shutdown" has severely impacted people's livelihoods in areas such as U.S. aviation safety and food relief [3]. Price Logic - Wednesday witnessed a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. Outlook - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5].