全球成品油库存低位?撑油价，液体化?延续弱势震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to consolidate in a range. Attention should be paid to when the high inventory of liquid chemicals starts to decline. The supply pressure of crude oil persists, and geopolitical risks still exist. The overall chemical industry continues its weak and volatile pattern, with methanol rebounding during the day. The supply of PTA is limited in the short - term, and the processing fee of short - fiber is expected to be compressed. Energy and chemical products generally show a pattern of range - bound movement [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks remain. The EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory increased last week, the refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month, and gasoline and diesel continued to destock. The overseas refined oil inventory pressure has eased, and the crack spread is strong, which still provides phased support for the demand side of crude oil. However, the reality of continuous inventory accumulation is difficult to change, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4][8]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price may test the 3200 pressure level again. The OPEC + group will continue to increase production in December, and after the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, the crude oil price has declined. The supply tension problem has been resolved, and the over - valuation premium of asphalt has begun to decline [4][9]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel oil is in a weak and volatile state. The supply of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region is expected to decline in November due to the decrease in Russian exports. However, the demand for fuel oil is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4][9]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the crude oil and fluctuates weakly. It is affected by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to follow the crude oil to fluctuate, and its current valuation is relatively low [4][11]. - PX: The market lacks clear news guidance, and the price fluctuates in a range under the game between cost and sentiment. The cost - side guidance is limited, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is acceptable under the support of the downstream polyester load [12]. - PTA: New Fengming starts new and stops old, and the short - term new supply is limited. The upstream cost is in a stalemate, and the supply has not significantly decreased. There is a certain expectation of improvement in the short - term supply - demand pattern, and the price is not likely to fall deeply in the short - term [12]. - Short - Fiber: Downstream factories are digesting their previous stockpiles, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed to a certain extent. The upstream cost fluctuates, and the short - fiber itself has no independent market, with limited supply - demand variables and general driving forces [18][19]. - Bottle Chip: The cost is in a stalemate, and the supply - demand drive is limited. The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate within a range, and the polyester bottle chip price follows suit. The medium - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the processing fee is in a stalemate [20]. - Methanol: There is slight support at the 2100 integer level, and it fluctuates. The domestic methanol factory operating rate is at a high level, and the supply is abundant. The port inventory is high, but considering the possible disturbances from Iran in winter, it still has low - buying value [23]. - Urea: High inventory suppression and cost support coexist, and it is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The supply is at a high level and fluctuates, the demand for winter wheat is coming to an end, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space of the futures price, while the coal cost provides support [24]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus of the market again, and the pessimistic sentiment is difficult to reverse. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the short - term, and the market is worried about a new round of capacity release. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase [16]. - Styrene: There are still concerns about inventory over - filling, and it fluctuates weakly. The cost - side pure benzene supply has some disturbances, but it does not reverse the situation. The supply - demand difference in November is negative, and the port inventory pressure is still large [14]. - PVC: The market sentiment has cooled down, and it fluctuates weakly. The macro - level disturbances have subsided in November, and the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. The cost is stable, the production will increase after the end of the upstream maintenance, and the export is weak [28]. - Caustic Soda: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and it fluctuates. The macro - level disturbances have subsided in November, and the fundamentals are improving, but the driving force may be limited. Attention should be paid to the cost support [29]. - Plastic: The short - term maintenance has decreased, and it is in a weak pattern. The oil price fluctuates, the plastic's own fundamental support is limited, the upper - and middle - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, and the short - term maintenance has decreased, increasing the production pressure [25]. - PP: The fundamental support is limited, and it weakens. The oil price fluctuates, the PP's own fundamental support is limited, the current maintenance has decreased, the production has increased year - on - year, and the middle - stream inventory is at a high level in the same period of the past five years [26]. - Propylene (PL): The downstream transaction improvement is limited, and it fluctuates. The CP prices of propane and butane announced by Saudi Aramco in November have decreased. The downstream demand is differentiated, suppressing the enterprise's shipment rhythm [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. show different changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.4 with a change of 0.03, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 8 with a change of 8 [31]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties are presented. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 with a change of - 3, and the warehouse receipt is 7690 [32]. - Inter - variety Spread: The inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 68 with a change of - 147 [33].