宏观预期反复但稳定，基本金属探底回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is volatile but stable, and base metals bottomed out and rebounded. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions continue to support base metal prices, but macro support has weakened. Long - term, with potential domestic incremental stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin, the prices of these metals are expected to rise [1]. - Copper: Due to tight US monetary liquidity, copper prices adjusted in the short term, but are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8]. - Alumina: The current fundamentals are in surplus, and the price is under pressure and fluctuating [10]. - Aluminum: Pay attention to demand changes, and the price is volatile at a high level, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term price center [13]. - Aluminum alloy: Scrap aluminum supply remains tight, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, and volatile in the medium term [15]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, with a potential decline in the long term [18]. - Lead: Social inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile, and is expected to be volatile and bullish [19]. - Nickel: Market sentiment is volatile, and the price is volatile [21]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel prices continue to fall, and the price is volatile [23]. - Tin: Market sentiment has declined, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish due to supply disruptions [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - Copper - Viewpoint: US monetary liquidity is tight, causing short - term copper price adjustments. Mid - term outlook is volatile and bullish. - Analysis: Fed cut interest rates in October, but Powell's speech was slightly hawkish. US financial system funding conditions worsened. In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper output decreased month - on - month. Spot premiums recovered, and inventories increased. Sino - US leaders' meeting is conducive to cooperation [8][9]. - Logic: Macro factors and tight monetary liquidity led to price adjustments. Supply is constrained by mine disruptions and increased scrap copper recycling costs. Demand may pick up as spot turns to premium [10]. - Alumina - Viewpoint: The fundamentals are in surplus, and the price is under pressure and fluctuating. - Analysis: Alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and warehouse receipts increased [10][11]. - Logic: High - cost capacity fluctuates, and the domestic market is in a strong inventory - building trend. Ore prices loosen slightly, and the price is under pressure. However, low - valuation may attract more funds [11][12]. - Aluminum - Viewpoint: Pay attention to demand changes, and the price is volatile at a high level, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term price center. - Analysis: Aluminum prices and premiums decreased. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories changed slightly. A project will be put into production, and some areas have environmental protection restrictions. Some aluminum has been transported to the US [13]. - Logic: The macro - environment is generally positive. Supply is affected by domestic environmental protection and overseas disruptions. Demand is stable after the peak season, and inventory changes should be monitored [14]. - Aluminum alloy - Viewpoint: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, and volatile in the medium term. - Analysis: Alloy prices decreased. The US may restrict scrap aluminum exports, and the estimated scale of the passenger car market decreased [15]. - Logic: Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply is affected by raw material shortages and other factors. Demand has a marginal improvement, especially in the automotive market [15]. - Zinc - Viewpoint: LME zinc inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, with a potential decline in the long term. - Analysis: Spot zinc premiums were stable. Inventories increased slightly. A mine's production was affected by an earthquake [18]. - Logic: The macro - environment is improving. Short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average [18]. - Lead - Viewpoint: Social inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile, and is expected to be volatile and bullish. - Analysis: Scrap battery prices were stable, and lead prices and inventories increased. Some enterprises are in maintenance or resuming production [19]. - Logic: Spot premiums and the price difference between primary and recycled lead decreased. Supply is affected by enterprise maintenance and resumption. Demand is in the peak season, and battery factories'开工率 is high [19]. - Nickel - Viewpoint: Market sentiment is volatile, and the price is volatile. - Analysis: LME and domestic nickel inventories increased. Some projects are in progress, and a company's new materials have achieved certain results [21]. - Logic: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally, with loose ore supply and increased inventories [22]. - Stainless steel - Viewpoint: Ferronickel prices continue to fall, and the price is volatile. - Analysis: Futures warehouse receipts were stable. Spot premiums were positive. Ferronickel prices decreased, and the Indonesian government allocated funds for mining projects [23]. - Logic: Cost support has weakened. Stainless steel production increased, but downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited. Inventories may accumulate seasonally [24]. - Tin - Viewpoint: Market sentiment has declined, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish due to supply disruptions. - Analysis: LME and domestic tin inventories changed, and spot prices decreased. - Logic: Supply is constrained by problems in Myanmar and Indonesia. However, refined tin production has increased, and inventory accumulation restricts price increases [25]. 3.2行情监测 - No specific content for monitoring is provided in the text. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On November 5, 2025, the comprehensive index, the special index (including the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index), and the PPI commodity index showed different changes. The non - ferrous metals index had a daily decline of 0.10%, a 5 - day decline of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 2.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.75% [151][152].