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股市盘?坚韧,债市仍有利好
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-06 05:28

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock market showed resilience with a low - open and high - close trend, while the bond market still has positive factors. November is a period of oscillatory digestion for the stock market, and there may be opportunities for re - layout after December. The bond market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views (1) Stock Index Futures - The market opened low and closed high, showing resilience. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, and the spreads between current and next - month contracts also had changes. Total positions increased. Micro - cap + dividend styles were dominant. November is an oscillatory digestion period, and it is advisable to hold IM + dividend in the short term [7]. (2) Stock Index Options - During the rebound, there were style differences. The trading volume of the options market increased by 2.78% compared with the previous day, and the 50ETF skewness index reached around 120. It is recommended to view it as an oscillatory market and choose to sell call options for hedging defense [2][7]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures - Long - term bond yields showed a V - shape. Most treasury bond futures contracts declined, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.08%, the 10 - year and 2 - year main contracts down 0.01%, and the 5 - year main contract remaining flat. The central bank's operations had a short - term negative impact on the bond market, but the fundamental environment is still favorable, and the bond market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Different trading strategies are recommended [3][8][9]. 2. Economic Calendar - The October SPGI manufacturing PMI in China was 50.6, lower than the forecast of 50.9. The October ISM manufacturing PMI in the US was 48.7, lower than the forecast of 49.5. The October ADP employment change in the US was 4.2 million, higher than the forecast of 2.5 million. Upcoming data include China's October trade balance in US dollars and the US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [10]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - Starting from November 10, 2025, at 13:01, China will stop implementing the additional tariffs on some US - originated imported goods and continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for one year, retaining the 10% rate. The central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5577 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4922 billion yuan [10][11]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content.